S&P 500 closed Tuesday 2/24 at 6890, up 0.8% ## Slight upticks on still very lousy consumer confidence and ADP payrolls [View all]

Last edited Tue Feb 24, 2026, 10:24 PM - Edit history (253)

In the future I will only be doing these twice a week: Tuesday and Friday, unless it's really interesting.

10 Year TREASURY YIELD 4.03% on Feb 24, down from 4.09% on Feb 20. It was 4.27% on Feb 3. It was 4.19% on Friday 12/12 (It local-bottomed out at 3.95% 10/22/25, its lowest point since April.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/
10 Year Treasury price: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZN%3DF/

Bitcoin: $64,086 @ 427p ET Feb 24, down from $68,597 @ 2/21 148p # It was $75,512 @ 6:50 PM ET Feb 3. It was $84,009 @ 944pm ET Friday 1/30. It was $95,401 @ 533p ET 1/16/26, It recently exceeded at last it's end of year 2024 closing level ($93,429), but it's back below the waterline on that metric, , It's in bear market territory, down more than 20% from it's $126,000+ all-time high in October (20% down from $126,000 is $100,800) ACTUALLY, it's down 49% from $126,000 (Cryptocurrencies trade 24/7) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/

Next Fed rate decision: March 18 (last was January 28)
CME FedWatch tool (probabilities of various Fed interest rate moves) 1/30: 13% chance of a rate cut), 2/10: 20% chance, 2/13: 9% chance, 2/20: 3% chance
. . . https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

The S&P 500 closed Tuesday February 24 at 6890, up 0.8% for the day,
and down 0.3% from Friday,
and up 19.1% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 14.9% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 17.1% since the December 31, 2024 close
and up 0.7% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC
(more below on the S&P 500 levels corresponding to the above, and also the Dow)

Market news of the day: https://finance.yahoo.com/

How to find the latest Yahoo Finance "stock market today" report if it's not at the finance.yahoo page (note that the headline displayed there does not include the "Stock Market Today" words, but the article itself does): click on
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com&oq=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com

If the link doesn't work for you,
Google: "stock market today" site:finance.yahoo.com

First I will briefly cover Monday. Then on to Tuesday

Monday Feb 23

S&P 500 down 1.04%, Dow down 1.66% (822 points), NASDAQ down 1.13%, Russell 2000 down 1.61%



--- SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE, Monday February 23 -----

Stocks fall as AI scare trade resumes, Trump tariff uncertainty emerges

BofA: 'Misinformation' around Blue Owl makes the stock an attractive buy
Blue Owl Capital's (OBDC) shares have been punished over the last week after news that the firm was suspending redemptions from one of its private credit funds. The move prompted a renewed surge in worries around private credit markets, and shares have dropped roughly 8% over the past month.

Gold climbs to three week high, silver jumps on tariff uncertainty

Treasury yields fall as investors turn to bonds amid flight to safety

Payments stocks get dragged into the risk-off wave ((payments and e-commerce stocks -progree))

Hedge funds sell global stocks at fastest pace since 'Liberation Day' meltdown

Novo's stock falls as obesity drug falls short against Lilly's in trial

From Wednesday but worth another day in the highlights --
BofA: Corporate profits rise while labor income falls, 'fueling K-shaped economy'
*There's a graph from 2006 on: Wages and salaries as a percent of GDP, compared to Corporate profits as a percent of GDP
The wages and salaries, at about 7.4% of GDP in the latest point on the graph, is lower than any point on the graph, per progreerian eyeballs


Tuesday February 24

S&P 500: +0.77%, Dow +0.76% (370 points), NASDAQ +1.04%,
10Y TREASURY 4.03% +0.00,
Bitcoin: $64,086 @ 427p ET



--- SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE, Tuesday February 24 -----

Software gets a bounce, but the chart isn’t forgiven


Goldman Sachs warns AI-fueled layoffs could raise the unemployment rate this year

Consumer confidence rises in February, but the trend is 'pretty disturbing,' economist says
More on Consumer Confidence in Calendar section below

Fed Gov. Lisa Cook: Standard Fed policy may struggle to counteract AI-driven unemployment
The article has comments from several other Fed big-wigs

Waymo expands robotaxi service to Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warns markets resemble pre-financial crisis era: 'I see a couple of people doing some dumb things'



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CALENDAR

Recent and Coming Up, Reports (I'm also keeping February 16 and later ones for now, I put the older ones in reply #1
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

See Reply #1 to this thread for reports prior to February 16.


The government reports are all seasonally adjusted, as are most, if not all, of the non-government reports the media covers, so please don't post comments about how the numbers look good (or not as bad as expected) only because of Christmas season hires or Christmas shopping. Or that it's warming up and people are beginning spring shopping already -- seasonal factors like that have been adjusted for

LAST WEEK'S REPORTS (Feb 16-20) FOLLOWED BY THIS WEEK'S REPORTS (FEB 23-27) FOLLOWED BY NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR (MAR 2-6)

I tried putting last week's report at the end so people don't have to scroll through them to see this week's reports. But it got to be confusing and harder to find things, so for now, it's all in chronological order.

LAST WEEK'S REPORTS (FEB 16-20)
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MONDAY FEB 16

None scheduled, President's Day holiday

TUESDAY FEB 17

Nothing

WEDNESDAY FEB 18

# Housing Starts for November and December
Housing starts jump to 5-month high in December
Go to Stock Market Today https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-gain-for-3rd-straight-day-nasdaq-jumps-as-traders-brush-aside-ai-worries-210052721.html
and scroll down the page quite a ways, or search the page for "housing starts"
Yes, I wish Yahoo would give these articles their own URL.

**FRED graph shown in the article, graph is titled: "New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started, Total Units" from 2016 onward


# Building Permits for November and December

December was 1.32 million vs. 1.31 million expected and 1.27 million previously, according to https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

# Durable Goods Orders for December

Durable goods orders were down 1.4% in December vs. down 2.0% expected, and +5.4% previously according to https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar . I believe these are seasonally adjusted. I don't have an explanation, I haven't looked for an article.


# Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January
Go to Stock Market Today https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-gain-for-3rd-straight-day-nasdaq-jumps-as-traders-brush-aside-ai-worries-210052721.html
and scroll down the page quite a ways, or search the page for "industrial production"
Yes, I wish Yahoo would give these articles their own URL.

US industrial production grew in January by widest monthly margin since March 2025 (+0.7%. It was the largest month-on-month percentage increase since March 2025,


# Minutes of Fed's January FOMC meeting

THURSDAY FEB 19

# Leading economic index for December Conference Board (non-governmental)

US leading indicators forecast slow start to 2026, Wall St. Journal via MSN (no paywall), 2/17/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-leading-indicators-forecast-slow-start-to-2026/ar-AA1WG60g

ULTIMATE SOURCE: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/index.cfm

# Unemployment insurance claims

US weekly jobless claims fall more than expected amid labor market stability (dropped 23k to 206k in week ending Feb 14 ## Continuing claims week ending Feb 7 ROSE 17k to 1.869 M), Reuters, 2/19/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-134542016.html
. . .continuing claims suggested that laid-off workers were experiencing difficulties finding new positions.
The median duration of unemployment is near four-year highs. The lack of hiring has significantly impacted recent college graduates, who because of no or limited work history, cannot file for unemployment benefits and are not captured in the claims data.

* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
This report's permalink: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260219
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

# U.S. trade deficit for December (the Commerce Dept)

U.S. trade deficit slipped to $901 billion last year amid Trump tariffs, AP, 2/19/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-trade-deficit-slipped-901-134134850.html
From $904 billion in 2024 to $901 B in 2025.
The trade gap surged from January-March as U.S. companies tried to import foreign goods ahead of Trump’s taxes, then narrowed most of the rest of the year.

Analysis: These two new economic numbers blew a hole in Trump’s rosy narrative, CNN, 2/21/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/analysis-these-two-new-economic-numbers-blew-a-hole-in-trump-s-rosy-narrative/ar-AA1WNbxe
#1 Trade balance,   #2 GDP growth (see Friday on GDP)

# Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods for December

See above AP story

# Mortgages rates

Mortgage rates drop to lowest level in nearly 4 years
https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/mortgage-rates-drop-to-lowest-level-in-nearly-4-years-110045487.html


FRIDAY FEB 20

# GDP Q4 FIRST ESTIMATE
2.5% annualized growth expected, 1.4% is what happened according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Q3 was 4.4% annualized rate (I know I know, but the AI spending counts as GDP, even if it produces nothing useful)

Yes, the reported GDP numbers are inflation-adjusted

Full year GDP's: 2024: 2.8%. 2025: 2.2%
LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143619093
ULTIMATE SOURCE:
. . . https://bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
. . . https://bea.gov/news/current-releases
. . . https://bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025

Analysis: These two new economic numbers blew a hole in Trump’s rosy narrative, CNN, 2/21/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/analysis-these-two-new-economic-numbers-blew-a-hole-in-trump-s-rosy-narrative/ar-AA1WNbxe
#1 Trade balance,   #2 GDP growth (see Thursday on trade balance)

# PCE Inflation for December - Fed's favorite inflation gauge
Expected: month-over-month: 0.3%, year-over-year: 2.8% (both numbers same as November's)
What happened: month-over-month: regular PCE (includes food and energy) +0.4%
Core PCE (doesn't include food or energy): +0.4%
12 month average (year-over-year): regular PCE: +2.9%, core PCE: +3.0%
LBN thread (this leads off with the GDP, but also includes PCE inflation): https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143619093
GRAPHS: rolling averages of 3 months and 12 months. And month-over-month bar chart. Both regular and core:
. . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3619273

This inflation gauge fully includes substitution effects, so for example if beef prices are way up and a lot of consumers switch to turkey necks, this inflation gauge will show a subdued rise or even a drop in the meat price index. But I suspect the Fed likes it because it tends to produce a lower inflation rate than the CPI.

* SOURCE URLS:: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2025
. . . Full Release and Tables: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/pi1225.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE

# Personal Income and Spending for December

* SOURCE URLS:: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2025
. . . Full Release and Tables: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/pi1225.pdf

# S&P flash U.S. services PMI for February

# S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI for February

# New home sales for November and December

# Consumer sentiment (prelim) for February

Consumer sentiment in February shows high prices weigh on US households, but Supreme Court could offer relief, Yahoo Finance, 2/20/26 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-in-february-shows-high-prices-weigh-on-us-households-but-supreme-court-could-offer-relief-161122277.html

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for February came in at 56.6, up 0.4% from January, but below last year's level of 64.7. The small increase was lower than the 57.2 reading expected by economists. (Be sure to look at the graph that shows the scale of the teeny tiny up-tick still leaving it at incredibly low levels historically.

ULTIMATE SOURCE: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH, 10 years: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf
GRAPH, 50 years: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsh.pdf


THIS WEEK'S REPORTS/CALENDAR (FEB 23-27)
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MONDAY FEB 23 (REPORTS)

# Factory orders December
-0.7%.  ; +0.2% expected.  ; Previous time: +2.7%.   Year-over-year: +3.7%


TUESDAY FEB 24 (REPORTS)

# ADP NER Pulse private payrolls weekly estimate - For the four weeks ending February 7, 2026, private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs a week. It was the fourth straight week  of  strengthening  job  gains.
SOURCE: https://www.adpresearch.com/ and search for Pulse
https://www.adpresearch.com/what-happened-to-labor-market-dynamism/ search for "NER Pulse" to see the graph
GRAPH:
Multiplying by 365 / (12*7) to "monthesize it" to the average month: 55,400
Compare to latest from BLS: 172,000 PRIVATE SECTOR jobs added in January
. . . https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
Economy Group Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1116101728

# S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities), December
Up 1.4%, same as November, which was also up 1.4%.

# Consumer confidence, February

91.2.   88.6 was expected.   Previous time: 89.0.

From the source: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/


For graphs, click above link -- the uptick is almost imperceptible. It remains at about the same level as it averaged in the first 9 months of the pandemic




WEDNESDAY FEB 25 (CALENDAR)

NVIDIA's earnings expected around 4:30 PM ET

THURSDAY FEB 26 (CALENDAR)

# Unemployment insurance claims

FRIDAY FEB 27 (CALENDAR)

# PPI Producer Price Index aka wholesale prices, January - last time the month-over-month was a whopping 0.5%, that's roughly a 6% annualized rate, and the year over year was 3.0% (the core PPI year-over-year was 3.5%). The Krasnov Krasnov! Brigade was eerily silent about that one.





NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR (MAR 02-06)
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MONDAY MARCH 2

# S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI Feb.

# ISM manufacturing Feb

TUESDAY MARCH 3

Nothing

WEDNESDAY MARCH 4

# ADP private sector employment (non-govt) Feb.

# S&P final U.S. services PMI Feb.

# ISM services Feb.

# Fed Beige Book

THURSDAY MARCH 5

# Initial jobless claims week ending Feb. 28

# U.S. productivity, Q4

# Import price index, Feb.


FRIDAY MARCH 6


# Big "First Friday" BLS jobs report headlining non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate


The full calendar: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Revised release dates for Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm

BEA.GOV news release schedule (they produce reports on the GDP, Retail Sales, PCE Inflation (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge), and Personal Consumption and Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

ADP NER Pulse (private payrolls weekly update): Is every Tuesday. The ultimate source: https://www.adpresearch.com/
and look for "NER Pulse"

Archives of previous reports

The monthly payroll employment reports from the BLS are archived at Archived News Releases (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/ ). In the list up at the top, under Major Economic Indicators, select Employment Situation ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm ) . That opens up links to reports going back to 1994. (Includes CPI, ECI, many others)

Unemployment insurance claims archives: https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp . If that doesn't work, start with https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp and click on "Weekly Claims Data" near the very bottom.

BEA's Data Archive https://www.bea.gov/news/archive

--------------------------
Erika McEntarfer (fired former BLS Commissioner) "Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data." - The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference." https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3614986



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The S&P 500 closed Tuesday February 24 at 6890, up 0.8% for the day,
and down 0.3% from Friday,
and up 19.1% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 14.9% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 17.1% since the December 31, 2024 close
and up 0.7% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)

S&P 500
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8
# 2025 year-end close (12/31/25): 6845
# October 28 all-time-high: 6890.90, surpassed by December 24's all-time high of 6932.00

# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
# S&P 500 futures: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/

Bitcoin
Bitcoin ended 2024 at $93,429. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Bitcoin's all-time interday high: 126,198 on Oct. 6
Bitcoin's all-time closing high: 124,753 on Oct 6. (that's what Yahoo Finance shows, but cryptocurrencies trade 24/7)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/

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I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. It's as asinine as judging consumer price inflation by picking 30 blue chip consumer items, and weighting them according to their prices. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).

The Dow closed Monday at 48,804, and it closed Tuesday at 49,175, a rise of 0.8% (370 points) for the day

https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544
# 2025 year-end close (12/31/25): 48,063

DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT. Sometimes it takes a couple days (sigh)



I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:

Crude Oil


US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)


If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
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