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Personal Finance and Investing

progree

(11,463 posts)

1. Vanguard's forecast for next 10 years: U.S. equities: 5.7%, Bonds: 4.6%

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Tue Dec 6, 2022, 07:56 AM

Dec 2022

annual average return

Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2023: Global summary, Vanguard, 11/23/22

10 year annualized return: U.S. (equity) markets: 4.7%-6.7% (midpoint 5.7%)

Bonds-4.1%-5.1% (midpoint: 4.6%)

There are also forecasts of GDP growth and inflation etc. in 2023

https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/news/vanguard-economic-and-market-outlook-for-2023-global-summary

VCMM = Vanguard Capital Markets Model

No idea on what the longevity of the bonds they are using in this.

Unfortunately, I didn't find the great detail rationale for the forecasts that they had last year, December 16, 2021 --
https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/vanguardeconomicandmarketoutlook

Maybe the 2023 one will come out in mid-December?

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Highlight:

Bonds Are Primed for a Better 2023, but How Much Better? [View all] mahatmakanejeeves Dec 2022 OP

Vanguard's forecast for next 10 years: U.S. equities: 5.7%, Bonds: 4.6% progree Dec 2022 #1

WHY are they suggesting a return significantly less than PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 2022 #2

It's explained in the links I gave - stocks are way overvalued relative to historic levels in a progree Dec 2022 #3

Not for every 10 year period -- they vary quite a lot from one 10 year period to another progree Dec 2022 #4

Thank you for that information. PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 2022 #5

I don't do individual stocks either. I own just one, a large utility, and would have a big progree Dec 2022 #6

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