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orthoclad

(4,728 posts)
1. Science is inherently conservative
Thu Jan 18, 2024, 02:23 PM
Jan 2024

At least good science is.

Authors don't make statements without data to support them. Models can only make predictions based on available evidence and data. But gathering data can be expensive, difficult, and tedious. Reich-wing purse-stringers keep trying to cripple the process; ignorance is blissful and profitable.

So far, it looks to me like all the current predictions of models and climate conventions are serious underestimates, based on observations vs predictions. Weather forecasters use a standard set of error statistics which compare predictions to observations, and correct their models accordingly. We should do this with climate change forecasts.

Planners need to add an extra fudge-factor to the direness of climate predictions, because things are always worse than we thought.

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