THE CYTOKINE STORM (Why COVID-19 is deadly to healthy people) [View all]
COVID-19 has already killed a disproportionate number of young, healthy people that have been infected with it, and it will continue to do so. Normally with influenza viruses, we are most concerned about potential fatalities among the very young, the very old, and the very weak. This viral infection is somewhat different. While the 2019 Coronavirus will prove lethal to some of the very old and some of the very weak, it is unlikely to prove deadly to the very young. So far, there have been very few deaths among persons in the 0-9 years of age range. The 20-40 range, however, is at particular risk with this kind of virus. Here's why:
UNDERSTAND THE CYTOKINE STORM
This coronavirus can trigger "Cytokine release syndrome" (a cytokine storm) in persons with particularly healthy immune systems. COVID-19 is a disease that you actually have a better chance of surviving if your immune system is slightly compromised. The 1918 flu pandemic (The Spanish Flu) killed between 50 and 100 million people, many of whom were young and healthy. Evidently, the virus triggers the body's immune system and keeps triggering it, non-stop and relentlessly, until the infected person is killed by their own, super-strong immune system. That is the essence of a cytokine storm, and it's why many young, healthy people are likely to be struck down by this disease.
In 2006, a medical study at Northwick Park Hospital in England resulted in all 6 of the volunteers given the drug TGN1412 becoming critically ill, with multiple organ failure, high fever, and a systemic inflammatory response.[19] Parexel, a company conducting trials for pharmaceutical companies, in one of its own documents, wrote about the trial and said TGN1412 could cause a cytokine storm—the dangerous reaction the men experienced.[20]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome
Take a look at this graph:
Notice the spike centered on the 25-34 range. Those are our healthiest people, and this graph deals in percentages. Yes, the chances of dying are higher for persons in the 75+ range, but there are many fewer people in that age range than in the 25-34 range. The raw number of deaths is likely to be highest among those who are young and healthy if COVID-19 follows the pattern of the 1918 flu pandemic.
Even if it doesn't exactly mimic the 1918 pandemic, it is foolish to pretend that our most healthy people are unlikely to die as a result of COVID-19. The high number of deaths that occurred as a result of the 1918 pandemic seems to be related to the fact that we actively selected transmission of more virulent strains of the virus. There were millions of troops in the trenches during WWI that came down with that virus. The ones who were only a little sick (ones with the less-virulent strains) were left at the front. The ones who were very sick (ones with the most virulent strains) were sent on crowded trains into the hinterlands--to multiple hospitals across multiple countries, where these more virulent strains were quickly transmitted to the local population and ended up killing tens of millions of people.
Answer: Isolate the more virulent strains. Well over half of us are going to catch this thing. Our best hope is to catch a less-virulent strain that we survive and that will then give us some immunity to the more virulent strains, but please, young people, do not assume that you are invulnerable. We all need to be very careful.
-Laelth
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