Gun Control & RKBA

To paraphrase Mr. Orwell, "Some statistics are more worthy than others".

It is almost certain, based on NICS check data that 2015 will be the highest year on record for private gun sales in the United States.

But ... when national polls ask how many households own guns, the numbers appear to be the same or dropping. How do we reconcile this seeming contradiction? The answer is likely in a Zogby Analytic question asked in February of 2015.

Zogby
QUESTION: “If a national pollster asked you if you owned a firearm, would you determine to tell him or her the truth or would you feel it was none of their business?”

Gallup recently released a poll showing that gun ownership had declined from polls they had taken in an earlier time period. That number is inconsistent with the number of firearms that have been sold since President Obama took office, but the difference can be answered by the Zogby Analytic question above. The poll indicates maintaining anonymity is a contributing factor

36% of all Americans feel it is none of the pollster’s business and that includes 35% of current gun owners 47% of Republicans and 42% of Independents

If we take the lower number, 35%, and apply it to the lowest numbers for gun ownership from a national poll, found in the General Social Survey (GSS), we see that it implies that gun ownership is up, not down.

The lowest number in the General Social Survey is 32% of households.

For those who are challenged by algebra, bear with me. If 35% of gun owners believe that gun ownership is something that is "no business of national pollsters", it suggests that only 65% of gun owners would admit to gun ownership on national polls.

The true number of gun owners would be, using the lowest numbers from the GSS, 32% of households multiplied by 1/.65 or 1.54 X 32%, which comes to 49%. 49% happens to be about the number of households that reported gun ownership in the late 1970’s. Of course that doesn't account for the population increase, just the percentage of adults."

In Massachusetts and Illinois, both with FID/FOID card requirements, legal gun owners do not have the option to refuse to answer or lie to a pollster. If they want to legally own a gun, they have to put themselves in the government database. By definition, the numbers of legal gun owners in those states are reasonably accurate, and not subject to the under reporting that voluntary national polls suffer from. While not necessarily projectable nationally, both states show a substantial increase in new gun owners in the past 5 years and if anything, probably have a lower number of new gun owners on average, due to more restrictive practices.