Baseball

"There are only two tragedies in life; not getting what you want, and getting what you want."

Or

"What seems to us as bitter trials are often blessings in disguise."

There was a Bill James study in an old abstract where he noted that 80+% of free agents decline in production with their new contract.

I prefer the Braves method: bring the kids up, find out who can play, then sign them to long contracts at age 20.

One final note: The game has changed so much in the last 20 years with more and more pitchers throwing 95+. In consequence, at bats given to 31 year olds and older is declining. The older you are, the harder it is to see and catch up to 99mph. Look at Markakis a few years ago - a pure hitter and a doubles machine. As soon as he couldn't catch up to 95+ he retired!

Long term contracts for players in their late 20's are a crap shoot. Put that $350 million into youth!