2016 Postmortem

but, it seems likely that it drove people to vote that might not have turned out before that remark. I think it galvanized some of his support.

All those small counties in Wisconsin where Trump won 60-70% of the vote and maybe 5,000 to 10,000 votes each county.

Let's say that without the "deplorable" comment that rallied voters, maybe 1 in 20 of those voters do not vote that day. But, they did vote just to show those liberal elitists what for!

1 vote in 20 is 250 to 500 votes per county small county. If there are 50 of those small red counties in the state, that adds up to 12,500 to 25,000 votes.

(That said, if you look at the polling after the 3rd debate, Clinton was ahead by double digits and pulling away. I think the ABC tracking poll was 51-38? A few days later, after the Comey letter story broke, the same tracking poll had Trump up like 44-43. While Clinton pulled back ahead by a few points, it was never the same...)