2016 Postmortem

onenote

(44,631 posts)

44. A tie or fewer votes than Clinton are not the only two options

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 06:04 PM

Dec 2016

They're not even the two most likely options.

Obviously, the most likely outcome is that Trump still ends up with at least 270 votes, even if some electors bail on him.

But assuming that 37 or 38 or 39 of his electors bail on him so he only has 269 (or 268 or 267) votes, it doesn't mean that Clinton will end up gaining enough of those votes to go from 232 to 269, 270, or higher. And it's simply beyond reasonable expectation to think she would.

So the most likely scenario (after Trump still having 270 or more) is that Trump has somewhere between 233 and 269 EC votes and Clinton still has only 232 and Trump is still the candidate with a plurality in the EC. And he's still the guy the House picks to be president.

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Hillary ONE TERM & DONE: a possible face-saving compromise for GOP electors? [View all] yurbud Dec 2016 OP

I think you may be in the "bargaining" phase of the "7 stages". n/t PoliticAverse Dec 2016 #1

At the same time! Kotya Dec 2016 #3

what's GMTA? yurbud Dec 2016 #5

"Great Minds Think Alike". n/t PoliticAverse Dec 2016 #7

maybe. yurbud Dec 2016 #4

I can't tell if you are in the... Kotya Dec 2016 #2

Nope-Hillary is done, done! Txbluedog Dec 2016 #6

it would have a secondary benefit of making the GOP hate the electoral college even more than Dems yurbud Dec 2016 #9

The primary benefit is too scary Txbluedog Dec 2016 #10

I think whatever happens, the electoral college's days are numbered. Anything to expedite that yurbud Dec 2016 #16

I disagree Txbluedog Dec 2016 #20

Yep! EL34x4 Dec 2016 #21

the national popular vote interstate compact circumvents that two-thirds business yurbud Dec 2016 #22

Think you'll get any red states to agree? EL34x4 Dec 2016 #33

The will of the voters in this case was to cast about 3 million more votes for Hillary, though. trotsky Dec 2016 #15

You mean override Russia and traitors. The will of the people is that they elect Hillary Clinton.nt JTFrog Dec 2016 #19

Donald J Trump won the electoral college Txbluedog Dec 2016 #34

That's why the founders established a direct election... sfwriter Dec 2016 #26

This seems to be a reasonable compromise... Joe941 Dec 2016 #8

Where are people getting the notion that... Kotya Dec 2016 #11

If the situation were reversed kudzu22 Dec 2016 #38

The creative fuckery with our Democracy is getting to be amusing. B2G Dec 2016 #12

With the EC meeting in days, I had the same thought. rogue emissary Dec 2016 #13

The EC doesn't meet as a group onenote Dec 2016 #24

If it goes to the House, they'll almost certainly pick Trump onenote Dec 2016 #30

He doesn't have any EC votes tell they vote monday. rogue emissary Dec 2016 #36

It won't even remotely go that far. duffyduff Dec 2016 #43

A tie or fewer votes than Clinton are not the only two options onenote Dec 2016 #44

So far nothing about this election has been reasonable. rogue emissary Dec 2016 #49

Why does the GOP need to save face? EL34x4 Dec 2016 #39

Free republic is a extreme. rogue emissary Dec 2016 #47

I think the only slight hope is for a GOP-backed coup at the electoral college vote on the 19th mtnsnake Dec 2016 #14

that would be a slightly more acceptable outcome even so. yurbud Dec 2016 #23

The Republicans don't have to compromise on anything. Ace Rothstein Dec 2016 #17

This is called bargaining BainsBane Dec 2016 #18

I'm not sure anything "stranger" than what you suggest has ever happened in US presidential election onenote Dec 2016 #25

I don't consider that a compromise. David__77 Dec 2016 #27

that dramatically increases my respect for Willie Brown. yurbud Dec 2016 #40

I think he did a good job with all that. David__77 Dec 2016 #51

Who would play the role of Willie Brown in this scenario onenote Dec 2016 #45

I don't think Clinton would be a good choice to visibly handle any of that. David__77 Dec 2016 #48

How about one term of Pence and done? sfwriter Dec 2016 #28

I could see that happening if Dems had any ability to bargain, which they don't. yurbud Dec 2016 #29

What do they have to bargain with? onenote Dec 2016 #46

good point. yurbud Dec 2016 #50

Pence is as tainted as Trump. n/t duffyduff Dec 2016 #42

"we could get four years to get the Democrats house in order and present a fresh candidate in 2020" Adsos Letter Dec 2016 #31

The Democrats are going to get absolutely nothing from the GOP CentralMass Dec 2016 #32

I understand how you feel after being depressed for months after 2004 election. But let it go. Hoyt Dec 2016 #35

Spaghetti is right. :))) pangaia Dec 2016 #37

Not going to happen. duffyduff Dec 2016 #41

Your spaghetti's not sticking. Better Al Dente YOHABLO Dec 2016 #52

Nope Freethinker65 Dec 2016 #53

convince electors that she'll be impeached Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #54

This is never going to happen. Trump will be the next president. That said, I don't think HRC was StevieM Dec 2016 #55