2016 Postmortem

triron

(22,240 posts)

26. Another important numerical statistic

Sat Dec 17, 2016, 06:35 PM

Dec 2016

from this report of raw exit poll data are the sample sizes, especially is some important swing
states like North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio where sample sizes were 3967, 3941, and 3190 respectively. These sample are much larger than almost all polls done pre-election and thus are very robust for two reasons 1)taken after vote cast, 2)large sample size reducing expected error (from true result). If one considers the universe of states to be only the swing states (including wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and Arizona) 12 out of 12 went toward Trump. That's 1 chance on 4096.
Not remotely plausible.

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Why is it so difficult for us to think the election was stolen? [View all] planetc Dec 2016 OP

I pretty much figured it was being stolen Richard D Dec 2016 #1

Yes, I found that suspicious too! Madam45for2923 Dec 2016 #2

esp. the nature of that hack CountAllVotes Dec 2016 #11

The "God Emperor Trump" Richard D Dec 2016 #24

I thought the faces w/the red lips on them CountAllVotes Dec 2016 #46

Coinkidink??... I don't think so!! InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #13

It was stolen by calculating just where and how many votes to swing the electoral college brush Dec 2016 #29

I thought that too blue cat Dec 2016 #33

the comradery helps triron Dec 2016 #34

+1 uponit7771 Dec 2016 #42

me too! Really it started for me the day before, when Trump was announcing Cabinet picks. nt LaydeeBug Dec 2016 #65

it was stolen. putitinD Dec 2016 #3

Well, that's four of us. So far, so good. eom planetc Dec 2016 #4

It was stolen. Madam45for2923 Dec 2016 #5

They stole it. True_Blue Dec 2016 #6

It is very easy to think and to see. Coyotl Dec 2016 #8

Worth a thousand words triron Dec 2016 #19

This. All the GOP cares about is money and power. Look at what they do in the light of day: NC coup chimpymustgo Dec 2016 #47

mine is zippythepinhead Dec 2016 #62

Cynic alert: Frankly, I think EVERYONE in politics... Guilded Lilly Dec 2016 #7

Never any need to apologize for cynicism ... planetc Dec 2016 #16

We just don't want it to be true CanonRay Dec 2016 #9

It was absolutely stolen. onecaliberal Dec 2016 #10

Stolen elections require an entirely different post mortem Kotya Dec 2016 #12

You're right. planetc Dec 2016 #14

Yes you are right on (see my other post here- triron Dec 2016 #18

+1 uponit7771 Dec 2016 #43

We should be used to it by now. 2000, anyone? nt Laffy Kat Dec 2016 #15

Also see Prof. Ron Baiman's triron Dec 2016 #17

No question in my mind it was stolen!! ElementaryPenguin Dec 2016 #20

I believe it is 24 out of 28 triron Dec 2016 #22

I just cut and pasted it from the report... ElementaryPenguin Dec 2016 #23

Another important numerical statistic triron Dec 2016 #26

It was absolutely stolen, and we will, I fear, end up doing nothing but watch our 60 years plus Grey Lemercier Dec 2016 #21

Yes, I think it was. Some of it we have proof of, like.. mvd Dec 2016 #25

Good points. For all we know, all the outrage over the Russians mtnsnake Dec 2016 #27

Yeah, it strikes me that the Russians are a distraction from horrendous problems in the voting ... planetc Dec 2016 #31

I do fear this. It's a horrible charade that has become really dangerous for the non-1%. chimpymustgo Dec 2016 #48

they stole it it so many ways KT2000 Dec 2016 #28

Also the bashing last year and this year. planetc Dec 2016 #49

For one thing, there's no evidence for that theory mythology Dec 2016 #30

Why is it so difficult for us to think the election was stolen? LenaBaby61 Dec 2016 #32

There is two ways to look at it. Exilednight Dec 2016 #35

Also depends on both triron Dec 2016 #36

Statistical evidence is the worst kind of evidence. Exilednight Dec 2016 #37

Then why is it so widely used in the sciences triron Dec 2016 #39

Big difference. Exilednight Dec 2016 #45

The studies of the "red shift" are also done by trained statisticians. planetc Dec 2016 #50

Dr Philips is a doctor of? Exilednight Dec 2016 #51

I urge you to look up Dr. Phillips' book planetc Dec 2016 #57

If we anulled the election, it'd cause a revolt and we'd look like facists. You don't have proof of dionysus Dec 2016 #66

Ron Baiman is a trained statistician. triron Dec 2016 #55

I think it's the whole boy/wolf story. egduj Dec 2016 #38

yes; we need all paper ballots, all hand-counted, all the time. nt TheFrenchRazor Dec 2016 #40

Of course it was stolen. Our vote was "hacked" in so many ways.... MaeScott Dec 2016 #41

All our elections are stolen, to varying degrees. Orsino Dec 2016 #44

To me the state to look to on this matter is actually Iowa. StevieM Dec 2016 #52

Iowa is just one state triron Dec 2016 #54

I think that polling has taken on a life of its own HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #53

I have no problems with it, clearly 2000 and 2004 were stolen as well. Rex Dec 2016 #56

The 2016 "election." Paladin Dec 2016 #58

I as well triron Dec 2016 #59

Because it makes us complacent and lazy. Kentonio Dec 2016 #60

I agree Iamaartist Dec 2016 #61

Stolen MoonRiver Dec 2016 #63

to anyone who believes this election was not stolen zippythepinhead Dec 2016 #64