The governor's races in 2017 and 2018 [View all]

In 2017 we have two governor's elections one in VA and one in NJ. We currently hold one of them. We have a pretty good winning streak in VA but some have been close calls. I still think we should be favored in that race. In NJ, the GOP incumbent is about as popular as getting a root canal while giving a speech while naked in public. We should win that race easily. Worst case here is a split decision but I think we are favored for gaining one governorship.

In 2018, we have what should be a good map. The GOP have term limited governors in AL, FL, GA, KS, ME, MI, NV, NM, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, WY and a retirement in ID. In comparison we have only CA, CO where we are term limited and CT where we have our own unpopular incumbent. We have, or should have, a good shot at FL, GA, ME, MI, NV, and NM. We should have some shot at OH. Admittedly the rest are varying degrees of long shots. We have problems in CT and CO could be dicey but otherwise we should hold our current seats. Assuming that we lose both of CT and CO and win only 2/3 of the 6 races we should be favored in that is a gain of 2. Honestly we should win at least 5 of the 6 and should hold CO for a gain of 4.

Governor's races and state legislative races are where we can, and need, to make our gains in 2017 and 2018. The House is all but unwinnable until the maps are redrawn (we have to win by about 7 points to have a shot under current maps). The Senate is a bad map this time with a decent map next.