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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
and it is not designed to extract anything in terms of concessions from us. It is aimed at marginally attached Sanders supporters and is designed for pure increases in the amount of their defection rate (meaning they vote 3rd party, or vote Trump, or simply do not vote.)
The core of his support this time, 2020, versus 2016 is extremely problematic. It is far more radical, far less Democratic Party-friendly, and far more likely to bolt the barn this go-round.
Here is a good OP on DU from 11 months ago discussing this (and remember, this is from April 2019, so 11 of SMASHING other candidates by the rad left social media spheres and rad left websites and boards has since taken place, making them even more likely to not support Biden, who is now the clear winner):
Worrying trend with Senator Sanders' supporters
https://www.democraticunderground.com/128775007
Forbes.com released a new poll pitting Mayor Buttigieg and Senator Sanders, and found some interesting numbers in the results.
5 Weird Items In The New Bernie-Buttigieg Poll
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldurkheimer/2019/04/17/5-weird-items-in-the-new-bernie-buttigieg-poll/#337df7ec7ddd
......
No. 3. 26% of current Bernie Sanders supporters said that they would rather vote for President Donald Trump over Senator Elizabeth Warren, if that were the eventual 2020 matchup.
While many have assumed that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren appeal to a similar progressive voter, many apparent Bernie supporters would seem to disagree. More than one-in-four of them say they would rather vote for Donald Trump’s second term instead of voting for Elizabeth Warren. In the overall head-to-head between Warren and Trump, voters suggest that they would prefer Trump 52% to Warren 48%.
No. 2: While 100% of Buttigieg’s supporters said they would support Bernie against Trump (if that were the General Election matchup), only 79% of Bernie’s supporters said they would vote for Buttigieg over Trump in a General Election.
This is just another example of the trend where Bernie's supporters appear to be incredibly loyal to just Bernie. Here, 21% of Bernie's supporters say that they would rather vote for President Trump than Pete Buttigieg, if given the binary choice. Perhaps many Bernie supporters would legitimately prefer Trump over most other Democrats. Perhaps Trump and Bernie have a similar, singular appeal to a certain subset of voters. While most Democratic primary voters would support Bernie in the general election if he were the nominee, it appears that some significant subset of Bernie’s supporters do not intend to reciprocate.
While many have assumed that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren appeal to a similar progressive voter, many apparent Bernie supporters would seem to disagree. More than one-in-four of them say they would rather vote for Donald Trump’s second term instead of voting for Elizabeth Warren. In the overall head-to-head between Warren and Trump, voters suggest that they would prefer Trump 52% to Warren 48%.
No. 2: While 100% of Buttigieg’s supporters said they would support Bernie against Trump (if that were the General Election matchup), only 79% of Bernie’s supporters said they would vote for Buttigieg over Trump in a General Election.
This is just another example of the trend where Bernie's supporters appear to be incredibly loyal to just Bernie. Here, 21% of Bernie's supporters say that they would rather vote for President Trump than Pete Buttigieg, if given the binary choice. Perhaps many Bernie supporters would legitimately prefer Trump over most other Democrats. Perhaps Trump and Bernie have a similar, singular appeal to a certain subset of voters. While most Democratic primary voters would support Bernie in the general election if he were the nominee, it appears that some significant subset of Bernie’s supporters do not intend to reciprocate.
What does this say about some of Senator Sanders' supporters? Not being an expert, to me it seems that a sizeable number of them have no trouble with burning the village in order to save it, and that they are willing to sacrifice any marginalized group if they do not get the economic policies they want delivered by the man they have chosen - the fact that Senator Warren have very similar stances, fleshed out with detailed policies, even, does not seem to matter.
And at this point in time it is only the willfully blind or the downright psychopathic who do not see that a second Trump term will mean deaths, many, many deaths. It will kill the weakest among us, the women who need abortions, African Americans all across the country, the disabled, the people on SNAP, the LBGTQ community, immigrants, Latin American children and adults at the border, and Americans of Latin American descent. All groups that can be scapegoated for the Trumpian deplorables will have its victims at the hands of the Trump regime. I never thought I would fear that Senator Sanders' supporters would help bring that into reality, but apparently I do.
snip
Again, the 2020 group (the main saving grace is that they are smaller in absolute numbers) is shaping up to be far less Democratic party-friendly, far more radical than his 2016 voting cohort was. I fear we may see an even larger defection rate (either to Trump, 3rd party, or no vote) than the 30% we saw in 2008 from Clinton Primary voters
For Clinton 2008 primary voters, around 24 or 25% voted for McCain, around 5% did not vote
https://isps.yale.edu/research/data/d130
https://sites.duke.edu/hillygus/files/2014/06/hendersonhillygustompsonPOQ.pdf
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/
Another useful comparison is to 2008, when the question was whether Clinton supporters would vote for Barack Obama or John McCain (R-Ariz.) Based on data from the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project, a YouGov survey that also interviewed respondents multiple times during the campaign, 24 percent of people who supported Clinton in the primary as of March 2008 then reported voting for McCain in the general election.
An analysis of a different 2008 survey by the political scientists Michael Henderson, Sunshine Hillygus and Trevor Thompson produced a similar estimate: 25 percent. (Unsurprisingly, Clinton voters who supported McCain were more likely to have negative views of African Americans, relative to those who supported Obama.)
Thus, the 6 percent or 12 percent of Sanders supporters who may have supported Trump does not look especially large in comparison with these other examples.
An analysis of a different 2008 survey by the political scientists Michael Henderson, Sunshine Hillygus and Trevor Thompson produced a similar estimate: 25 percent. (Unsurprisingly, Clinton voters who supported McCain were more likely to have negative views of African Americans, relative to those who supported Obama.)
Thus, the 6 percent or 12 percent of Sanders supporters who may have supported Trump does not look especially large in comparison with these other examples.
snip
I also dealt with Operation Chaos here
https://www.democraticunderground.com/128775007#post166
which was very tiny in both number and impact in 2008. It has been vastly overstated here dozens of times just that I have seen since mid 2018, when I joined DU.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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