Democratic Primaries

thesquanderer

(12,347 posts)

72. re: "after he lost the Michigan Primary because those blue wall states are vital in the GE"

Tue Mar 24, 2020, 09:55 PM

Mar 2020

I'd say that's not a good thing to base your choice on. Losing Michigan to Biden in no way tells you whether Biden would be stronger in Michigan against Trump. The same voters who prefer Biden over Trump can easily equally prefer Sanders over Trump. Plus a lot more people vote in the general, it's a different set of voters, and the primary results tell you nothing about how those people will vote. If you want to compare how likely Biden or Sanders are to take Michigan in November, the best info is here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
and
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_sanders-6768.html

Polling isn't perfect, but repeatedly polling the exact contest of interest is better than drawing an inference from an entirely different contest.

That said, as a former Warren supporter myself, I do think Biden will be the stronger general election candidate than Sanders would be, for reasons I described at https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287672216
reasons that would all still be true even if Sanders had won Michigan.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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81 replies

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Are Biden's falling polling numbers due to the Pandemic? [View all] bluewater Mar 2020 OP

Sanders is surging Legends303 Mar 2020 #1

No, he's not. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #5

Please don't ignore Biden's corresponding drop off in both major polling trackers trackers. bluewater Mar 2020 #12

I can't believe that you think that Bernie's supposed 40% puts him in a good position pnwmom Mar 2020 #37

LOL wut? Aquaria Mar 2020 #31

Noone is MFM008 Mar 2020 #47

Except for the people who scan the Democratic Primaries forum. ;-) (n/t) thesquanderer Mar 2020 #69

This is the Internet equivalent Codeine Mar 2020 #64

Oh, honey! Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha! NurseJackie Mar 2020 #66

Sanders is surging? It may be a medical issue, but we don't know his medical history, so who knows? zackymilly Mar 2020 #67

.... ehrnst Mar 2020 #80

No SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #2

Possibly. Sanders would need to win out at a 30% margin to win regardless. I am skeptical of polling Anon-C Mar 2020 #3

I believe you are correct. bluewater Mar 2020 #7

In the general, yes. Unless the balance of AAs, suburban women and college-educated whites in the... Anon-C Mar 2020 #13

Again, I believe you are correct. bluewater Mar 2020 #14

Why do you have a Biden icon? brush Mar 2020 #19

Why would I not? bluewater Mar 2020 #23

Sanders has refused to drop out because he's Sanders. Nothing new. brush Mar 2020 #26

re: "after he lost the Michigan Primary because those blue wall states are vital in the GE" thesquanderer Mar 2020 #72

Why not? thesquanderer Mar 2020 #70

Sanders is down from ten days ago. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #4

Sanders is up on 538 since 3/7. bluewater Mar 2020 #9

Well Big Tuesday was 3/10, and Biden polled pretty well there. Anon-C Mar 2020 #29

National polls are meaningless in regards to the nomination. Aquaria Mar 2020 #34

Ohio poll True Blue American Mar 2020 #43

Or Bust, I presume? PubliusEnigma Mar 2020 #6

Sanders needs to win 60+ percent of all the remaining votes frazzled Mar 2020 #8

I just did the math: Sanders needs to win 64% of the remaining delegates. W_HAMILTON Mar 2020 #41

Pandemics are what pandemics are. NCProgressive Mar 2020 #10

+1000 bluewater Mar 2020 #11

I predicted customerserviceguy Mar 2020 #15

Sanders appeals to his usual 30%, but the rest of the contests feature diverse... brush Mar 2020 #16

The Economist has Sanders up to 40% at the moment. bluewater Mar 2020 #17

No rallies, no surge. brush Mar 2020 #21

And again, national numbers are meaningless. Aquaria Mar 2020 #35

Want proof that Arizona is smarter than Florida? BidenBacker Mar 2020 #62

It does not matter. This race is over. Nt helpisontheway Mar 2020 #18

I agree. bluewater Mar 2020 #20

No, BS refuses to drop out because he's trying to remain relevant Aquaria Mar 2020 #36

I support Biden but it seems he has disappeared the last doc03 Mar 2020 #22

So has Sanders, to be honest they both have. bluewater Mar 2020 #24

Someone has to be out doing something Trump doc03 Mar 2020 #28

Look what some of Trump's devotees just did in my state BidenBacker Mar 2020 #59

Stop promoting this right-wing meme Aquaria Mar 2020 #38

1% True Blue American Mar 2020 #44

Thank you.. you are Dead On! I don't how some Cha Mar 2020 #50

+++ still_one Mar 2020 #53

Biden is True Blue American Mar 2020 #45

Balderdash. nt Codeine Mar 2020 #65

Biden was all over the place today. LakeArenal Mar 2020 #79

Ask yourself this William769 Mar 2020 #25

Ask yourself this bluewater Mar 2020 #27

Have fun trying to get Sanders the nomination. William769 Mar 2020 #30

Have fun trying to get me interested in a strawman argument. bluewater Mar 2020 #32

And the answer still remains that you're referring to national polls Aquaria Mar 2020 #49

oooh BidenBacker Mar 2020 #60

Not since South Carolina Aquaria Mar 2020 #39

It's over showblue22 Mar 2020 #33

Sanders is losing. Badly. quakerboy Mar 2020 #40

The hate fest is coming from those trying to deflect. True Blue American Mar 2020 #46

Sure there is. Plenty of reasons quakerboy Mar 2020 #68

This is the normal noise you see in polling. Sloumeau Mar 2020 #42

There was polling every day until 3/20. jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #48

The only numbers that matter are primary election results and Sanders decisively lost. ucrdem Mar 2020 #51

What is the point of this OP other than to undermine the presumptive nominee? TexasTowelie Mar 2020 #52

yup, and the OP has a pattern of doing this still_one Mar 2020 #54

I'm aware of the pattern. TexasTowelie Mar 2020 #56

Well said Texas still_one Mar 2020 #58

If you only want to see pro-Biden posts, isn't that the whole purpose of the Biden 2020 group? nt thesquanderer Mar 2020 #71

Thankfully, this particular group will be closed in a few months TexasTowelie Mar 2020 #73

Maybe sooner, if Sanders withdraws. Might depend on when Joe hits 1991? n/t thesquanderer Mar 2020 #74

And I wish that Bernie would withdraw now instead of later. TexasTowelie Mar 2020 #75

I'd like to point out BidenBacker Mar 2020 #55

Good Analysis, Sir The Magistrate Mar 2020 #77

When wil Joe broadcast and on what site? tirebiter Mar 2020 #57

Biden's Remarks Today: Sloumeau Mar 2020 #63

Don't worry BidenBacker Mar 2020 #61

Ha MustLoveBeagles Mar 2020 #78

Sanders will have to win 80% in every remaining state just to pull even. RandySF Mar 2020 #76

An update - on Monday 538 forecast Biden to get 1081 of the remaining delegates, Sanders 545.... George II Mar 2020 #81