A Post-Democratic Primary Update to the Bitecofer Model
March 24, 2020

As the Democratic primary winds down, with a Biden nomination a delegate-math inevitability even if contests remain on the calendar, it is time for one of the few updates I plan to my forecast, this one, the post-primary update. Of course, this update comes at a time of incredible turmoil, not only in America, but worldwide, as the unprecedented COVID19 pandemic unfolds ...

In the July 2019 release of this forecast, I said that little could occur that could alter the basic contours of this election cycle: Democrats are fired up in a way they were not in 2016 because of negative partisanship powered by backlash to Trump and thus would increase their turnout significantly and be less likely to defect to third-party candidates. I also said, “barring a significant shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency.” ...

Democrats, no doubt, are hopeful that as spring turns to summer and the scope of the economic damage begins to set in, a similar situation as befell George W. Bush will befall Donald Trump. While that’s not impossible, there have been important changes in mass political behavior over the past decade that suggest that Trump might be able to evade Bush’s fate. My dissertation research finds a sharp change in public opinion starting in 2008-2009 as two events unfold simultaneously — the collapse of the American economy and the election of America’s first black president — findings that are also confirmed by the Pew Research Center’s polarization research. And elections over the past decade have bucked trends of decades past, making candidates whose scandals or behaviors would have once been disqualifying competitive for public office by the virtue of partisanship — candidates such as Roy Moore in Alabama, who lost out on a Senate seat by just over a point despite multiple allegations of child molestation that emerged during his candidacy.

A recession will certainly provide a potent test of the old “fundamentals” models that my research challenges. Make no mistake about it: If “the economy, stupid” still matters, it needs to matter here, and it should put the presidency completely out of grasp for Trump. Along with the state-level analysis presented here, economic fundamentals models under a recession will predict dismal electoral prospects for Trump. I assume these models have elements in them to prevent them from making forecasts akin to the Reagan/Carter map from 1980, which of course we will not see because the electorate of 1980, which was rich in liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats, and a Southern realignment hitting its stride is long gone.

Now, the parties are largely ideologically homogenous and partisanship has evolved to become a social identity, an individual’s “ride or die,” which makes the prospect of red states breaking in favor of Biden seem unlikely, especially given the salience of white racial identity in contemporary Republican politics.

If the economic-fundamentals models retain even half of their old vitality, what we should see this fall is something on par with Obama’s 2008 Electoral College dominance of John McCain, which was produced under similar, collapse-in-progress economic distress. As of today (March 24th), I’m not willing to say such a map is absolutely impossible but I’m bearish on it as two critical components of that 2008 map, Indiana and Missouri, have drifted sharply to the right over the past decade, each becoming about 5 points more Republican and tossing both of their incumbent Democratic senators out of office in 2018 in what was a blue wave year. To recreate an Obama map takes more than turnout surges of Democrats and Independents. ...

But even without a big assist from the looming recession, by avoiding a Sanders nomination, and with it, total party meltdown, Democrats are well-positioned for the fall general election. The changes to my original ratings from July 2019 reflect this reality and are universally positive for Democrats. ...

https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/