Democratic Primaries

Not every poll breaks it down that way but some do. In 2018 Republicans were faring well in enthusiasm polls but Trump's strongly disapprove number was almost twice the strongly approve percentage. It was generally in the 47-24 range. People who disapproved of Trump strongly disapproved. That translated to votes.

I haven't looked at that relationship lately but we need to gap to remain as wide as possible.

I remember Romney was said to have a big enthusiasm edge in 2012, specifically after exceeding expectation in the first debate. That drove the betting price on Obama down and I took advantage. Obama was in that surreal advantage of incumbent whose party had been in power only one term. Obama also had the swing state polling edge in 2012, meaning his electoral college chances were far beyond his popular vote chances. Nate Silver was emphasizing that repeatedly. Then if flipped in 2016 with Hillary's electoral college situation always far more precarious than the national polling indicated. Again, Nate Silver was all over that also.