Democratic Primaries

In fact, at least one losing candidate stayed in the race in all open contests (defined as no incumbent) since 1984 until the contests wer done. In 2008, HRC was in until the end in the closest contest. In 2016, Bernie stayed in until a week or two after the contests, In 2004, Kuchinich with extremely low support stayed in until the convention, Jerry Brown stayed in until June in 1992 ( Gore was in at this point as well), in 1984, Gary Hart was in to the end and winning states, in 1988, Jesse Jackson was in until the end. In fact, in that entire period, only Al Gore had no significant opponent at this point in the race.

The virus has made this year extremely weird. Before it brought the process to a standstill, it was likely that Biden would mathematically get 50% (plus 1) of the delegates by the end of April. Now, it will likely be June before all these delayed primaries are run. It is still mathematically possible for Bernie to win - though very unlikely as things stand right now. However 2 months is an eternity in politics. I see Bernie as LESS popular now than 3 weeks ago, but he might not see that.

NONE of the people who dropped out in earlier years did so when they still saw a chance of winning. 538 gives him little chance, but it is an estimate of what would happen if nothing changes before people vote. The norm is that many drop out long after they have a realistic chance of winning.

To take a year where I remember the numbers, it was completely unlikely that anyone else but Kerry would win after the first multi-state day where he won 5 out of 7 states - described by Dean after his loss in NH as not good for New Englanders when he explained why he would concentrate on contests a week or so later. Yet, Dean and Edwards stayed in for several more weeks - during which time Kerry won every state. Edwards only dropped out after the biggest superTuesday when Kerry had almost the number of delegates needed even if no superdelegates voted for him. In fact, both were FAR more behind when they dropped out - and Kerry had a more solid win than Biden's at this point - and Biden is VERY solid.

Can you give an example where someone doing as well as Bernie dropped out at a point similar to this point (ignoring how atypical this year is)?

I think it would be good to STOP the Bernie drop out posts that only anger his supporters. Think of any time you were supporting the trailing candidate. How much harder would it be for you to support the nominee if you feel that your candidate was pushed out before he/she had reached the point where he/she realized his/her dream was over? WE NEED those voters.