General Discussion

First of all, HW Bush not getting re-elected in 1992 had 0% to do with Iran-Contra. That should have been a factor in 1988 and 1992, but it was not.

You are also misinformed on the results of incumbent US Presidents who have been sought re-election. 31 US Presidents have sought re-election. 21 of them got 2nd terms and 10 of them failed to. That works out to a failure rate of about 32.2%, which is not by any statistical definition, a result of incumbents "almost always winning".

The incumbent presidents who failed to be re-elected were John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, Benjamin Harrison, William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George HW Bush, Donald Trump.

No incumbent president with approval/disapproval numbers where Biden's are has EVER been re-elected.

I'm not here to bash Biden, I like the man. But, I think many people here are putting on blinders and unwilling to acknowledge the reality we are in. Biden being 81 and showing cognitive decline isn't a Putin plot. No Democrats were focusing on it before the debate, but the American public has seen it and although many of us may be willing to still vote for him, there's an alarmingly high probability that he may not get enough votes from the American public as a whole.