General Discussion

The only time I think Trump led in 538’s model in 2016 was right after the Republican convention, when he had like a 55% of winning for a few days. I don’t recall him ever leading in 2020. Their last prediction gave Obama about a 91% chance of winning in 2012 if I remember correctly and made Nate famous when he called every state correctly (he even switched Florida to a very light blue the morning of the election).

Still, I am not trusting 538, Lichtman, or any other experts. I think David Pakman was the one who said this election has a sample size of n=1 when it comes to similar elections: we’ve never had a rematch of the same race four years later when both candidates have been presidents, we haven’t had a pair of candidates that are the oldest in history, nor one who is a convicted felon who tried to overturn the results of the previous election and is yet somehow ahead if the polls are to be believed. Oh and one whose party is trying to convince the winner of the primary to step aside. This truly is uncharted territory. And I think there will be plenty of more plot twists to come before (and possibly after) Election Day. When an assassination attempt is the headline news for about 48 hours you know this isn’t normal.