General Discussion

Just because someone has been in the past really has no bearing. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads six times in a row it is still 50-50 on the next flip. A real tell is the use of the term "Nostrodamus" who wrote silly vague crap. Bookmakers are very realistic and only care about making money. The problem with polls is the "likely voter" classification. No one knows who will turn up on election day. Of course, the booky thing is just based on how the money is going like pari-mutual betting so it doesn't include non gamblers. What we do know that a good candidate will find a way to win especially in a close race and the way to do it is through enthusiasm thst drives people to vote.