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(28,834 posts)

7. Some markets had Trump at 90% on election day. They predicted a GOP wave in 2022.

Sun Sep 29, 2024, 08:50 AM

Sep 29

They basically just swing with the news. They aren't any more predictive than anything else (in some cases, they're decidedly worse).

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/16/how-good-are-election-prediction-markets/

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Which do you trust more: Polls or Allan Lichtman's Keys? [View all] Frank D. Lincoln Sep 29 OP

We need another poll similiar to this sky_masterson Sep 29 #1

I voted other because I believe displacedvermoter Sep 29 #2

Neither, they are both political entertainment... getagrip_already Sep 29 #3

I like following the betting markets Poiuyt Sep 29 #4

I agree. Scruffy1 Sep 29 #6

The keys ClimateHawk Sep 29 #5

Lichtman. tavernier Sep 29 #8

RSO rso Sep 29 #9

That does make me feel more confident Frank D. Lincoln Sep 29 #11

His keys are often wrong if you count the popular vote Quixote1818 Sep 29 #13