A lot of it involved some serious pretzel-twisting.
And what did they do to address this? Over-sample even MORE 45 voters - basically "trolls under the bridge that are supposedly 'shy'".
They continue to dismiss the impact of Roe (which was one of the reasons why they flubbed 2022) and right now, there are whole demographics who they are intentionally ignoring as "likely voters" because by golly, those groups "didn't vote in the past" so they are assumed to NOT be a "likely voter". And in some cases, they do some black box "weighting" to correct for their intentional skew, which is a bunch of nonsense that makes no sense other than to try to make the numbers "look legit".
I know in 2022, some of what I call "the narrative" was designed to make Democrats spend MORE money on what were SAFE SEATS because the polluted polls that came out right around this same time in 2022, suddenly took 10 - 15 point ranges, down to a couple points, and even to "tied". And this was often AFTER they had actually switched to LV models.
An example was this that I have posted a few times before in other threads -
By Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder
Dec. 31, 2022
Senator Patty Murray, a Democrat, had consistently won re-election by healthy margins in her three decades representing Washington State. This year seemed no different: By midsummer, polls showed her cruising to victory over a Republican newcomer, Tiffany Smiley, by as much as 20 percentage points.
So when a survey in late September by the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group showed Ms. Murray clinging to a lead of just two points, it seemed like an aberration. But in October, two more Republican-leaning polls put Ms. Murray barely ahead, and a third said the race was a dead heat.
(snip)
Ms. Murray’s own polling showed her with a comfortable lead, and a nonprofit regional news site, using an established local pollster, had her up by 13. Unwilling to take chances, however, she went on the defensive, scuttling her practice of lavishing some of her war chest — she amassed $20 million — on more vulnerable Democratic candidates elsewhere. Instead, she reaped financial help from the party’s national Senate committee and supportive super PACs — resources that would, as a result, be unavailable to other Democrats.
A similar sequence of events played out in battlegrounds nationwide. Surveys showing strength for Republicans, often from the same partisan pollsters, set Democratic klaxons blaring in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Coupled with the political factors already favoring Republicans — including inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — the skewed polls helped feed what quickly became an inescapable political narrative: A Republican wave election was about to hit the country with hurricane force. Democrats in each of those states went on to win their Senate races. Ms. Murray clobbered Ms. Smiley by nearly 15 points.
(snip)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html
In essence, the gasbag media have "reset the clock" back to 2016 and completely ignored 2020. And the thing with 2020 is this - IMAGINE if there was no pandemic that basically limited many people's ability to vote because the number of polling stations were drastically cut due to not enough workers and/or workers and/or actual voters who had COVID.
2016 was BEFORE Roe was overturned and before J6, but to them, none of that matters. It's 2016 all over again.
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