For the Win [View all]

"Yesterday I dared to struggle. Today I dare to win." -- Bernadette Devlin


Four years ago, I was invited to participate in an internet group of people who were -- and still are -- opposed to the felon. At that time, I was the first male in the group, though now it is about 20% male. Yesterday, a number of that forum's members expressed anxiety over VP Harris's chances of winning the election. This included both female and male members, as did the responses that expressed confidence in victory.

I think that it is normal to be nervous. As Cus D'Amato pointed out, both the hero and the coward feel the same nervous feelings before going into a fight. That nervousness is like a fire. The hero uses the fire to heat their house, while the coward is consumed by the flames. I suppose that it is fair to say that I am neither a hero or a coward, as I do not feel "nervous" about many things in life, including this election.

Friends on that forum were focused on polls. In 2016, of course, Democrats were confident that Clinton would soundly defeat the felon, based upon polls. Four years ago, many of the same friends on that forum were nervous about Biden's chances of victory -- due to polls. There, like here on DU, I said Joe would win by 7 million votes.

I think of polls as generally being about as accurate as television commercials for what McDonald's suggests is food. Perhaps this is due to my father's teaching me to keep track of numbers from elections back wen I was a young teenager. Use that plus the political climate -- is it much the same, or has there been a change in the direction the winds are blowing -- to determine which candidate will likely win. This formula has value in every election contest, from local to presidential.

There were three factors in our 2016 loss that do not get the attention that they deserve. This is because emotions tend to countermand reasoning. However, in 2016, a surprising number of white women, for a variety of reasons, voted for the felon. Second, black women, who I consider the most important sub-group in our party, sat out the election in significant large numbers. The third factor was that young voters, as happens from time to time, tended to not feel connected to voting in large numbers for the candidate who actually represented their best interests.

I am not suggesting that Hillary Clinton was responsible for these things. I do think that her campaign failed her, largely due to over-confidence. I think they were convinced that traditional republicans would not vote for a maniac ...... proving that they were unfamiliar with my father's teaching that republican voters are human sheep that vote for who they are told to. I'll remind people that Liz Cheney voted for the felon in both 2016 and, more importantly, 2020.

I think that the Harris campaign is doing a much better job than was done in 2016. Again, I am not comparing our party's candidates in the contests, just the campaign. I do not see overconfidence on the Harris campaign's part, for example. More, the winds took a strong change in direction when the christian-right majority on the Supreme Court overturned Roe. Add to this the felon's madness has become more concentrated, and thus less appealing to independents. And to top it off, young female voters -- including those too young to have voted in 2020 -- will be voting in significantly high numbers this time.

The electoral college is obviously a factor. And so is the organized republican to help the felon "win" in several states. But when we look at numbers, starting in 2018, through 2020 and even 2022, the republicans have not done as well as they anticipated. Because the felon is a ball & chain on their party.

In 2020, I said that Joe Biden would win by 7 million vote. In 2024, I anticipate that VP Harris will win by 9 million.