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Self Esteem

(2,248 posts)

18. The average of polls according to 538 has her leading 48.1 to 46.6%.

Reply to RidinWithHarris (Original post)

Sun Oct 27, 2024, 08:06 PM

Oct 2024

That's a 1.5 margin. My guess is she wins 51-47 - maybe that 47 rounded to 48. So, 3-4 point margin of victory in the popular vote.

That would put the polls, on average, 2.5 off at best. I think that's reasonable and within the MOE of most polls.

Very little chance Kamala wins by more than that.

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Most of us agree polling is probably broken. But broken by how much? [View all] RidinWithHarris Oct 2024 OP

I hope you see the irony by running a poll lapfog_1 Oct 2024 #1

Absolutely. The kind of irony I love 😄 RidinWithHarris Oct 2024 #2

LOL! LymphocyteLover Oct 2024 #10

Trump said it: Election is rigged LiberaBlueDem Oct 2024 #3

Shes gonna win by around ten is my guess ColinC Oct 2024 #4

In what country? iemanja Oct 2024 #12

America is a place that makes drastic reversals after major mistakes. ColinC Oct 2024 #13

Quite possibly, but that doesn't equal ten points iemanja Oct 2024 #14

No we are screwed if it is anything less than a landslide in my opinion ColinC Oct 2024 #15

It would be amazing if you were right iemanja Oct 2024 #16

Agreed! ColinC Oct 2024 #17

"Election is rigged." J_William_Ryan Oct 2024 #5

3%? Elessar Zappa Oct 2024 #6

Why I chose hidden (by a lot) GemDigger Oct 2024 #7

What matters, however, is not your reluctance to participate in polls... RidinWithHarris Oct 2024 #8

*bump* RidinWithHarris Oct 2024 #9

We won't know until after the election iemanja Oct 2024 #11

Most of us like to try to figure out where event are likely to take us RidinWithHarris Oct 2024 #19

Agree Baggies Oct 2024 #21

The average of polls according to 538 has her leading 48.1 to 46.6%. Self Esteem Oct 2024 #18

I'm slightly more optimistic than that, but not by a whole lot RidinWithHarris Oct 2024 #20