General Discussion

My reason for a little more optimism isn't in the accuracy of the polling itself, but the turnout motivation that can only be roughly estimated based on previous elections.

As for MOE, that's actually less important the more polls you have to average together, and/or have a running track record of. MOE captures the completely random part of polling error, related to the luck-of-the-draw of who randomly pick to poll, nothing more and nothing less.

The more you aggregate, the more the MOEs tend to cancel each other out. Average together 10 polls each with an MOE of 3% and the average will have an MOE of only around 1%.

MOE doesn't capture modeling errors or participation bias at all.