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mathematic

(1,605 posts)
15. Can't conclude anything from this. Older voters vote early and 58% of over 65 population are women
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 11:21 AM
Oct 2024

There isn't enough early voting election history to really draw any conclusions about the the demographic turnout of the early voters. Early voters are not a representative sample. You can't treat it as if it were a statistical poll.

In 2020, women made up 52% of the electorate. That's a 4% gap compared to the 55-45 10% gap in early voting now.

In 2020 over 65 was 16% of the final vote. In early voting now, I'm seeing that over 65 is at 44%.

You absolutely would expect something like a 10 point gender gap with these kinds of numbers. In other words, early voting should have a much larger gender gap than final results because early voting is highly weighted towards elderly voters and the elderly population has vastly more women than men.

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It's not new. LisaL Oct 2024 #1
According to TargetSmart's analysis, Black and Latino women under the age of 30 are not only showing up at higher rates BlueWaveNeverEnd Oct 2024 #2
And in both AZ & NV there are abortion laws on the ballot. oldsoftie Oct 2024 #3
Re: Tom Bonier's comment Sky Jewels Oct 2024 #4
Exactly what jumped out at me. intheflow Oct 2024 #10
So many men don't seem to get that the high court declaring women Quiet Em Oct 2024 #12
Yeah, it is really hard to imagine Farmer-Rick Oct 2024 #13
If Harris can get a plurality of the white female vote, she wins Kaleva Oct 2024 #19
Texas 54% women 46% men. duncang Oct 2024 #5
I'm imagining Ted Cruz Sky Jewels Oct 2024 #6
I am so hoping this comes true Blue_Roses Oct 2024 #8
Why anyone... 2naSalit Oct 2024 #7
Agreed. I'd like to see ads aimed at men - "Why I'm voting for my wife, for my daughters, and for my mother....." Doodley Oct 2024 #9
I've seen a few good ones so far... 2naSalit Oct 2024 #17
I'm not surprised DemonGoddess Oct 2024 #11
That's what I saw in FL. Longest line I've ever seen, about 75% women. CaptainTruth Oct 2024 #14
Can't conclude anything from this. Older voters vote early and 58% of over 65 population are women mathematic Oct 2024 #15
It's gonna be a slaughter! IrishAfricanAmerican Oct 2024 #16
I think the GOP is a dog that caught the car. TomSlick Oct 2024 #18
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