General Discussion

republianmushroom

(18,179 posts)

33. He's not, polling

Sun Nov 3, 2024, 09:05 PM

Nov 3

We ran the numbers. Even if all 7 swing states are actually tied, there's only a ~1 in 9.5 trillion chance~ that so many polls would show such a close race.

Other than Selzer, and a handful of state focused pollsters, the polling services have given up on this election. They are not even trying anymore. When someone like Nate Silver, who has his own credibility problems, calls out an entire industry for making up their results, you know there is a problem.

These are not really even polls anymore, and they are not even guesses of what will happen. These "polls" are just someone aligning their results to match everyone else's results.

Other than Selzer and a few of those local organizations, we are flying blind heading into Tuesday.

Open the links at these 2 addresses.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219645529

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1852476681958666270%7Ctwgr%5E78c6b1dfe5d9e19a4a957fb41b47b1c29c8864d1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.democraticunderground.com%2F100219645529

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Quixote1818

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Sorry, I don't believe Trump is at 49% against Harris [View all] Just_Vote_Dem Nov 3 OP

Hope you are right... WomanWhoRoars Nov 3 #1

They have to try to keep the suspense going. Janbdwl72 Nov 3 #53

Me neither. OAITW r.2.0 Nov 3 #2

They pretty much dismissed the Iowa Poll. Klarkashton Nov 3 #3

The campaign isn't taking the poll very seriously either. TwilightZone Nov 3 #6

You said it not me. Klarkashton Nov 3 #8

Marcy Wheeler had an interesting take on polls Just_Vote_Dem Nov 3 #13

I don't expect Harris to win Iowa but it does show a potential shift that was also picked up by previous Selzer polls... Self Esteem Nov 3 #21

More woman are voting than men Blue_Roses Nov 3 #37

I don't doubt it's very accurate. Self Esteem Nov 3 #43

No, but... VeryProgressive Nov 3 #44

Bingo. nt Quixote1818 Nov 3 #7

I just watched Rachel spend about 20 minutes saying the Iowa poll is the most accurate poll mucifer Nov 3 #12

All morning and afternoon the folks on there were Klarkashton Nov 3 #14

The Iowa poll is thrilling,but realistically an outlier Algernon Moncrieff Nov 4 #56

I don't believe any Faux pas Nov 3 #4

It doesn't matter if he is or isn't. The swing states are all that matter. TwilightZone Nov 3 #5

Yep, thanks for that n/t Just_Vote_Dem Nov 3 #10

I had the sound down but I was trying to find where Trump had a 48% POTUS approval rating underpants Nov 3 #9

He doesn't have that now. I can't imagine where this Klarkashton Nov 3 #15

I just saw Plouffe on. Ari asked about Trump retrospective polling at 48% underpants Nov 3 #18

Is this a rewrite or nostalgia for shit that didn't happen? Klarkashton Nov 3 #19

It must be. underpants Nov 3 #20

I don't either. GoodRaisin Nov 3 #11

I'm wondering how many registered republicans duncang Nov 3 #16

Neither do I. ProudMNDemocrat Nov 3 #17

It makes no sense AZSkiffyGeek Nov 3 #30

AZ voters must be really stupid or pollsters are kansasobama Nov 3 #36

With MOE in these polls, 49 could also be 46, which is probably where he's at. Self Esteem Nov 3 #22

Good point Just_Vote_Dem Nov 3 #24

Here's some deception in this poll and its announcement. lees1975 Nov 3 #23

I noticed the non-likely voters too bagimin Nov 3 #48

I'm dismissing all the polls, even the ones I like. TomSlick Nov 3 #25

I don't believe it either. That's too insane. Dave Bowman Nov 3 #26

TSF is at 33% verargert Nov 3 #27

Only in a sane country Polybius Nov 3 #35

about 53 hra... and we'll all know WarGamer Nov 3 #28

Do you think he is higher or lower? Your OP does not indicate which way you think it is wrong. nt kelly1mm Nov 3 #29

I think he's lower because I don't remember him recently Just_Vote_Dem Nov 3 #31

I don't either. He's hemorrhaging support. onecaliberal Nov 3 #32

He's not, polling republianmushroom Nov 3 #33

I have an issue with Welker and Kornacki kansasobama Nov 3 #34

Half the country is stupid! Trump keeps telling them everything was great when he was president and they give him credit Doodley Nov 3 #38

Yes. Tweedy Nov 3 #39

You're not alone! Glamrock Nov 3 #40

I think Harris wins by 2 points, with Third Parties combining for 1.5% or less Polybius Nov 3 #41

I don't buy it for a second LilElf70 Nov 3 #42

I do SpankMe Nov 3 #45

I dropped all media reporting last week AverageOldGuy Nov 3 #46

The difference in the rslly attendence has to count for something Figarosmom Nov 3 #47

Replying to a poll and actually voting are two different things... EllisWhy Nov 3 #49

Me neither but that's also why I don't want the major news FirstLight Nov 3 #50

VonSchitzInPants has no ground game to speak of, has lost some Republican women, has NoMoreRepugs Nov 3 #51

Got to have the old horse race! Dangling0826 Nov 3 #52

Not sure what this is moonscape Nov 3 #54

I can believe it. Septua Nov 3 #55