General Discussion

Last edited Tue Nov 5, 2024, 07:43 AM - Edit history (1)

That's another interesting slant on this. The poll only asked people to consider odds of winning, but not also the variable of winning by how much. (Though as it turns out, it looks like few respondents even thought they had about the same chance of winning, period.)

One of the biggest concerns about the election is what Trump will do if Harris wins... and I think the turmoil that could follow might be based, in part, on how much Harris wins by. If it all comes down to a situation where flipping one state would change the outcome (e.g. Pennsylvania), I think the potential turmoil is worse than if changing the outcome would require "proving" shenanigans in lots of states. The bigger the electoral margin of victory, I think, the harder it will be for TFG to convince bigger groups of people that the results may be suspect.

Related, in any given state, the more Harris wins by (in that state's popular vote), I think the harder it is to create skepticism about that vote. And if exit polls support a Harris blowout, so much the better (though that could be trickier if Harris is indeed getting a lot of "secret" votes from people who won't even admit who they voted for to their spouse).