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FBaggins

(27,735 posts)

57. Inflation is not a "yes/no" binary

Fri Nov 15, 2024, 03:50 PM

Nov 15

Inflation is always related to monetary/fiscal policy - specifically the relationship between the supply and velocity of money and the supply of goods and services. Supply issues can absolutely impact prices, but that can be mitigated by constraining money supply growth. But meeting it with incredible expansion in the money supply can only make things worse.

Perhaps inflation would have capped at 4-5% if we hadn't blown up the spending. That would still be inflation beyond reasonable targets - but 10% is so much worse.

And it is reasonable to speculate that a lower rate of inflation over those two years may have resulted in a better election night

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Cook political / popular vote / turrnout change maps [View all] BootinUp Nov 14 OP

Wow! Turnout increased in the crucial swing states LeftInTX Nov 14 #1

Every state went more red in the electoral college map (Presidential) than in 2020 andym Nov 14 #2

Good theory. Nt BootinUp Nov 14 #3

The ridiculous part is it would have been worse BootinUp Nov 14 #4

yes-- good observation andym Nov 14 #5

Higher unemployment would have been BootinUp Nov 14 #6

Inflation was not caused by monetary policy BootinUp Nov 14 #7

It wasn't just inflation-- the higher FED rates caused higher interest rates causing increased debt andym Nov 14 #10

There is no reason to believe the fed would not raise BootinUp Nov 14 #11

The Fed should have raised rates earlier and been more aggressive with the hikes. Self Esteem Nov 14 #13

Faster than anywhere in the world is just BootinUp Nov 14 #14

This point is meaningless in the face of the BootinUp Nov 14 #15

Not really. Self Esteem Nov 14 #23

enough time on this hypothetical / alternative BootinUp Nov 14 #24

You were the one who initiated the discussion of alternate explanations. Self Esteem Nov 14 #25

The global inflation plus the amazingly fast BootinUp Nov 14 #28

The immaculate disinflation was a global phenomenon. Self Esteem Nov 14 #35

How does that implicate US spending BootinUp Nov 14 #38

The global nature supports my argument. BootinUp Nov 14 #39

I love the way you do a straight comparison of hard inflation numbers like BootinUp Nov 15 #43

Because the question was always about the perception of inflation. Self Esteem Nov 15 #63

Try this chart. Can't wait for your take on it. BootinUp Nov 15 #45

Now show m2 money supply and velocity of money FBaggins Nov 15 #47

I am saying it was unavoidable as demonstrated BootinUp Nov 15 #56

Inflation is not a "yes/no" binary FBaggins Nov 15 #57

I'm glad you were not in charge. Nt BootinUp Nov 15 #58

Here is an analysis of this specific case of inflation BootinUp Nov 15 #59

Later, P.K. declared inflation was over and added further analysis BootinUp Nov 15 #60

It just reinforces the original charts I showed. Self Esteem Nov 15 #61

Because you are not adjusting for different index calculations@! Read the PK article BootinUp Nov 15 #62

I am comparing apples to apples. Self Esteem Nov 15 #65

Putting blinders on you can't see what fruit you have@ BootinUp Nov 15 #66

Apples to apples. The US inflation rate is higher than multiple peer economies. Self Esteem Nov 15 #68

I guess back to normal range ain't good enough for you? BootinUp Nov 15 #64

I never said that lol Self Esteem Nov 15 #67

I cannot explain it better than Krugman BootinUp Nov 14 #29

His article literally supports what I said. Self Esteem Nov 14 #33

The emphasis is on supply, go to the final BootinUp Nov 14 #34

The emphasis is on the fact Americans had a shit-ton of money to spend in 2021. Self Esteem Nov 14 #36

Excerpt BootinUp Nov 14 #37

I have seen overlays of other countries BootinUp Nov 14 #40

And I will add, I think it's imaginative but BootinUp Nov 14 #16

Yes-- because the Fed is independent. NT. andym Nov 14 #20

That was my point-- both inflation and interest rates would have risen under Trump, harming consumers andym Nov 14 #21

Rec. BootinUp Nov 14 #22

It was heavily caused by monetary policy - can't grow M2 by 40% in a few years without causing inflation Amishman Nov 15 #50

Just refute the following BootinUp Nov 15 #51

please check your facts, other major economies grew their money supply significantly as well Amishman Nov 15 #52

You can't expect me to take BootinUp Nov 15 #53

This is basic economic data and basic math, but fine - here you go Amishman Nov 15 #54

World economies took various actions BootinUp Nov 15 #55

Biden's policies improved supply. Nt BootinUp Nov 14 #8

Yep Deminpenn Nov 14 #19

Pretty big drop in turnout across the big blue states. That's surprising. In It to Win It Nov 14 #9

Removed from the rolls? kentuck Nov 14 #12

Not surprising when you consider Biden's approval ratings among Democrats. onenote Nov 14 #17

None of it is surprising in a global pandemic BootinUp Nov 14 #18

Biden wasn't running, Harris did much more than just.... Think. Again. Nov 14 #26

California turnout DOWN 19%???? LSparkle Nov 14 #27

California 19% turnout. Sorry that makes no sense at all, and while it was lower, it was still 71%." JohnSJ Nov 14 #30

(Down) 19%. BootinUp Nov 14 #31

So third lowest in a century. Sounds bad BootinUp Nov 14 #32

It would make no sense - good thing it isn't true FBaggins Nov 14 #41

California counts real slow. Good point. BootinUp Nov 14 #42

Third lowest in 100 years apparently. nt BootinUp Nov 15 #44

It's actually the second largest number of voters - ever FBaggins Nov 15 #46

Thanks JohnSJ Nov 15 #49

That is another reason I was questioning it because here in California every registered voter is mailed a ballot with JohnSJ Nov 15 #48