General Discussion

It's why it was utterly stupid to look at all the special elections Republicans were losing prior to the November election and using that proof of some shifting tide that would wipe out Trump and Republicans in November.

So many people got caught up in those special election results and they really didn't mean much. And tonight's election won't, either.

Democrats have done exceptionally well in low-turnout races and Republicans seem to be doing much better when turnout is higher. It's why I dismissed everyone last year who said high turnout was good for Democrats. It's not. Democrats' strength is with high-propensity voters and their weakness is with low-propensity voters, as we saw in 2024. Those voters typically stay home on these special elections and come out for the major ones.

The lower the turnout the more likely the Democrats are to win.