General Discussion

That's a big reason Clinton and Obama overperformed their party in multiple elections (as those voters typically only vote every four years). However, those voters have shifted significantly since 2016. High turnout generally means more of these low-propensity voters are getting out to the polls and they have not been favorable to Democrats in the most recent elections.

They hurt Hillary in 2016, was a big reason Trump overperformed polls in 2020 and why he won in 2024.

These voters are typically less engaged than high-propensity voters - they're generally lower income and less educated.

A big reason Democrats have done so well in these elections is because higher educated, more affluent voters tend to vote more consistently than less educated and lower income voters.

It wasn't that long ago Republicans dominated white, college educated voters. But Harris actually won white educated voters 53-46.

In 2020, Trump was the first Republican in over 60 years to lose college educated white voters, having barely won it in 2016 (here's an article about how he was possibly the first Republican in 60 years to lose that vote - which he didn't but did in 2020 and then again in 2024).

These voters vote in these types of elections. It's a big reason Democrats did so well in special elections throughout 2023 and 2024 - and that was not a precursor to anything in terms of general election success because Trump has taken a lot of those low-propensity voters who used to support the Democrats.

Democrats went from winning those who made less than $50,000 by +22 points in 2012 with Obama (vs Romney), to losing this demographic by 2 to Trump in 2024.

Trump's success has proven a realignment of sorts. Democrats went from the party of the lower working class with a significant amount of high school-only educated voters - to the party of higher incomes and more education across all demographics.

To further expand on this point: in 2012, Obama beat Romney 51-48 among voters who had only a high school education. In 2024, Trump beat Harris among this group 56-43. Those voters are less likely to vote in these off elections than affluent, more educated voters. That's why Democrats USED to do well with high turnout elections. But not anymore. Not in the Age of Trump.