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Arazi

(8,682 posts)

55. The Iowa pollster was taking a sample and extrapolating

Sun Jun 29, 2025, 05:04 PM

Jun 2025

She was basically making an educated guess (which turned out to be really wrong).

These are actual voting stats from the NYC primary.

Apples to oranges.

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Incanus wolfie001 vanessa_ca MadameButterfly

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I have never seen a voting graph like this. Ever [View all] Arazi Jun 2025 OP

Fascinating. Autumn Jun 2025 #1

Lightening in a bottle here if Dems can catch it Arazi Jun 2025 #10

People vote for what affects THEM. Greedy Ol' Party turns out those that hate the same as the GOP does. LiberalArkie Jun 2025 #23

Democrats want their lives to be better DBoon Jun 2025 #53

Plus Democrats have empathy, the GOP thinks that empathy is a fault in a person. LiberalArkie Jun 2025 #54

Seems those Republicans never read the Bible, although they claim to live by it Jack Valentino Jun 2025 #71

They live by the Old Testament not the gospels in the New Testament LiberalArkie Jun 2025 #74

Not Far From Wrong... GB_RN Jun 2025 #75

You gave me a great idea onlyadream Jun 2025 #80

Right and President Biden kkmarie Jun 2025 #73

The same demographic that did not bother to vote on the presidential election? Eliot Rosewater Jun 2025 #2

Harris won NYC and NY state. yardwork Jun 2025 #3

But trump got far more votes than in 2020 or 2016 Callie1979 Jun 2025 #22

As a matter of fact BaronChocula Jun 2025 #28

The dems should have investigated DENVERPOPS Jun 2025 #62

But no one wants to talk about the reasons WHY Callie1979 Jun 2025 #97

I wonder if it is same demographic that was against the war on Gaza? Autumn Jun 2025 #5

There you go and that could make it a one-off anomaly /nt bucolic_frolic Jun 2025 #44

Right. H2O Man Jun 2025 #46

You might say it's a "New Deal". mjvpi Jun 2025 #67

Yes. H2O Man Jun 2025 #68

Young people put Biden over the top in 2020 MadameButterfly Jun 2025 #69

K&R orangecrush Jun 2025 #4

My speculation is many older voters were dismayed karynnj Jun 2025 #6

Polls are loosing relevance IbogaProject Jun 2025 #21

Hell, I'm 60+ & wont answer a number I dont know. Callie1979 Jun 2025 #24

The NORC Poll identifies itself in caller ID Captain Zero Jun 2025 #29

Iowa last year was so far off that the well-known "Iowa" pollster retired, iirc. Tetrachloride Jun 2025 #37

I remember that one. It made ZERO sense. But retiring? Callie1979 Jun 2025 #42

Some foul ups are big enough to end a career - for a pollster, being over 16 points off certainly qualifies. Midwestern Democrat Jun 2025 #65

That 25,000 payment for a house was a terrible idea. All it would do is throw travelingthrulife Jun 2025 #88

My thoughts as well. Littlered Jun 2025 #78

That is my take as well. Littlered Jun 2025 #79

Keep it going... Mike Nelson Jun 2025 #7

Good catch. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Jun 2025 #8

Reminds me of Bob Dylan's song Wicked Blue Jun 2025 #9

I think about that song all the time dwayneb Jun 2025 #92

Graphs rso Jun 2025 #11

An apathetic youth vote IS typical across the nation (and NYC) Arazi Jun 2025 #13

Since I refuse to communicate with people who trashed Hillary in 2016 Eliot Rosewater Jun 2025 #12

As long as the Mamdani Team DownriverDem Jun 2025 #14

It would help if leadership and establishment Dems like Gillenbrand Arazi Jun 2025 #15

Yes, ALL Dems should jump on this bus! thought crime Jun 2025 #17

I was thrilled to see him on MTP this morning Arazi Jun 2025 #18

The key income arguement is income multipliers IbogaProject Jun 2025 #27

Well, I heard that he was proposing.... reACTIONary Jun 2025 #58

All government jobs are a form of socialism. The Wizard Jun 2025 #77

I wish he and NCmindfield Jun 2025 #85

That's great, but... LudwigPastorius Jun 2025 #16

Dems should not fight DownriverDem Jun 2025 #19

We can start that right here on DU. murielm99 Jun 2025 #34

Amen JustAnotherGen Jun 2025 #57

Every election we talk about the youth vote here on DU. AllyCat Jun 2025 #20

2008 Exit Polls 18-29: Obama 66, McCain 32 speak easy Jun 2025 #26

And yet fast forward 16 years to 2024, when the 18-29 cohort would be in Abolishinist Jun 2025 #38

Holy SHIT. Maru Kitteh Jun 2025 #25

the Democrats in Congress need to wake up to this reality. barbtries Jun 2025 #30

Both my DiverDave Jun 2025 #31

I'd guess the young people, a lot of them Linda ladeewolf Jun 2025 #32

I wonder if the heat deterred some of the older voters dsc Jun 2025 #33

Dems wanted the yougth vote, now some republianmushroom Jun 2025 #35

hope you are watching, martin et tu Jun 2025 #36

Unity and future. Putting those together means that politicians over 60 are not in the optics of the young. Tetrachloride Jun 2025 #39

NYC TnDem Jun 2025 #40

Again, the point is Mamdani got the 18-24 yr old demographic to the polls Arazi Jun 2025 #43

Agreed, but TnDem Jun 2025 #47

Yes but we can compare it to past NYC elections Arazi Jun 2025 #50

This is what upsets me. David Hogg was told in so many ways that he was not welcome in the DNC. The young...... usaf-vet Jun 2025 #41

I'm 65. But if the Democratic Party abandons Mamdani MadameButterfly Jun 2025 #70

Well, young lady, I must say I completely agree with you. I, for the most part, have had it with the let's wait and see! usaf-vet Jun 2025 #86

Recommended. H2O Man Jun 2025 #45

Yet this "convincing evidence" NEVER seems to produce results on election day wolfie001 Jun 2025 #48

This is data from the New York Board of Elections Arazi Jun 2025 #51

I remember the photos from the Harris speeches and the tRUMP speeches wolfie001 Jun 2025 #52

The Iowa pollster was taking a sample and extrapolating Arazi Jun 2025 #55

I hope the dynamic is changing wolfie001 Jun 2025 #63

That is extraordinary PatSeg Jun 2025 #49

There won't be a fight unless the establishment/moderate Dems choose MadameButterfly Jun 2025 #72

Agree here 💯 Arazi Jun 2025 #84

It's not being Progressive that is the issue dwayneb Jun 2025 #93

Are we going to let Republicans tell us who we can run because of what they will say? MadameButterfly Jun 2025 #96

Our Young Democrats club here in Ft Worth has taken off like a rocket yellowdogintexas Jun 2025 #56

This is where i point to the Gen Z riots and resistance in Kenya JCMach1 Jun 2025 #59

About time relayerbob Jun 2025 #60

Maybe apologize to David Hogg and bring him back before we do end up with Trump 3.0 or prez Vance LT Barclay Jun 2025 #61

No. David Hogg does not want to replace Republicans he wants to replace Democrats. Oopsie Daisy Jun 2025 #82

He wants Dems who will fight, not placeholders who are passive Arazi Jun 2025 #83

Ah, yes... another opportunity to shit on Democrats with lies and smears. Oopsie Daisy Jun 2025 #87

Your post isn't clear to me Arazi Jun 2025 #89

I'm all out of spoons. Oopsie Daisy Jun 2025 #90

I think he's trying to replace corporate democrats with ones who appeal to younger voters and LT Barclay Jun 2025 #95

Link to the full NYT article ... cliffside Jun 2025 #64

I work with a young guy who voted for him Polybius Jun 2025 #66

It isnt that young people dont vote SSJVegeta Jun 2025 #76

I'm reading that the turnout was 30%. Of that 30% how were the votes spread out? Oopsie Daisy Jun 2025 #81

That's pretty amazing dwayneb Jun 2025 #91

The 18-34 demographics have the most to lose, the most at stake. Let's hope they continue to vote in '26 and '28. ancianita Jun 2025 #94