At minimum, it's a distinction with no truly meaningful difference.
But at this point I've not found corroboration for the main claims. "Shots will be fired" is at minimum an odd coincidence, but it's a common enough expression along the lines of "there'll be a lot of verbal conflict" that I don't think it can be positively pinned as "evidence". Also, given how much IQ47 pisses people off, and the fact there's been 2 attempts at his life, he can probably assume that attempts will continue. And despite the recent judges order halting the Ballroom construction, the fact that there's lawsuits trying to stop it are much older, so he's had time to strategize to try to push it through.
Thus, I cannot discount the possibility that he decided "next time it happens, I'm going to leverage it to promote the need for the ballroom". Yes, in THIS case it's awfully convenient that it happened at an event he could pertinently claim "this could've been held at said ballroom" (as opposed to, say, a football game at a stadium), but he very well may have pushed the ballroom angle anyway no matter where it was. He doesn't care if everyone is all "WTF, how stupid, you couldn't hold the football game at the ballroom?!?", he'd try it anyway.
And yes it's an odd coincidence it was shortly after a judge put a temporary stop to construction, but again, not quite enough of one that it beggars belief. Taken as a totality of circumstances, it absolutely makes sense to be suspicious, and CERTAINLY one should not trust any aspect of the regime's "official story" because they'd lie about anything. At this point I don't even know we're sure the suspect ever even fired a shot, for example.
BUT, it does at least seem like this dude did go there with the intent to harm people, including POTUS. That aspect seems pretty well confirmed. Could he have been manipulated by the CIA/FBI or the like to get him to act? I'm not sure we could totally rule that out but its seems far-fetched, like out of some Cold War movie plot, but who knows with this regime