General Discussion

Melon

(1,834 posts)

5. The issue is how many times have we been told to leave the market?

Thu Jun 4, 2026, 08:55 AM

Jun 4

My portfolio is up 20% this year. Slightly more last year. It’s literally changing my retirement horizon.
The message was to leave last year on trump election. The message was to get out end of 2025. I absolutely know individuals who did and are now really far behind.
I used to get in and out for these reasons, and at the end of the day never came out ahead.
Market timing is a bad bet usually. Take some profits sure, but on a multi year crime horizon no. I would even say it’s at your own risk of returns to not be invested in AI and yes…space X. There are bubbles but the US through 401k accounts has a continuous influx of investment cash going into the market. AI is the foreseeable future and the most successful entrepreneur in the world is Musk. It’s just as risky to bet against those things.

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Highlight:

longshot prediction: the AI bubble gets popped this month by the SpaceX IPO, so get out NOW [View all] paulkienitz Jun 4 OP

Sold my last 3 stocks. Moved money to a multigraincracker Jun 4 #1

You may be right edhopper Jun 4 #2

If the Democrats win back Congress this fall I predict a stock market correction. yardwork Jun 4 #4

Trump will still be President edhopper Jun 4 #22

The felon is shoveling billions of our tax dollars at AI to pump it up. pat_k Thursday #63

There are no crashes anymore. Market is rigged and irrational GreatGazoo Jun 4 #3

That kind of rigging can't hold forever paulkienitz Jun 4 #11

and yet here we are GreatGazoo Jun 4 #15

Something I think a lot of folks are missing are structural changes in the market. Happy Hoosier Jun 5 #43

Have had similar thoughts GreatGazoo Jun 5 #44

Yeah, lots of folks specualte about that kind of stuff... Happy Hoosier Jun 5 #45

The issue is how many times have we been told to leave the market? Melon Jun 4 #5

Yeah, that's where I am ITAL Jun 4 #8

It took six years to recover edhopper Jun 4 #23

Six years isn't that long for me ITAL Jun 4 #24

Or get out now and edhopper Jun 4 #28

Preferably you are cost averaging. Melon Jun 4 #32

There are other investments edhopper Jun 4 #33

If you took your money out in 2007 edhopper Jun 5 #40

Right. And if you bought a house in Florida in 2018 Melon Jun 6 #48

In general yes edhopper Jun 6 #49

Exactly. You can't ignore warnings this big and loud. paulkienitz Jun 6 #52

The amount of investment edhopper Jun 6 #54

And don't forget to factor in capital gains taxes. onenote Jun 7 #59

No it's not "just as risky". paulkienitz Jun 4 #9

Ill gotten ponzy...huh? You mean investment returns. Melon Jun 4 #21

"others success"? There is no success to profit from in AI. paulkienitz Jun 4 #25

Go read what Sam Altman is saying. Uber and Melon Jun 4 #31

That math doesn't math -- companies will not pay enough. paulkienitz Jun 5 #34

Data Centers are not getting built Metaphorical Jun 6 #51

Those backstops trying to hold up the market are going to have their work cut out for them. paulkienitz Jun 6 #53

WSJ and Gallup did a story looking at how Democrat voters are losing money GreatGazoo Jun 4 #16

"Democratic." The adjective form is "Democratic." ColoringFool Jun 4 #17

I could have put a hyphen in there but noun GreatGazoo Jun 4 #20

No Johnny2X2X Jun 4 #6

I've heard that song before. paulkienitz Jun 4 #10

We've been waiting decades for a bubble Johnny2X2X Jun 4 #12

Index funds are like 50% AI bubble now. paulkienitz Jun 4 #14

9 years ago when I joined DU, people were saying that Bitcoin would burst and go to near zero Polybius Jun 5 #36

Bitcoin will either sputter on for decades, or go almost instantaneously to zero at any time -- it's not predictable. paulkienitz Jun 5 #37

People are predicting the market is holding on Johonny Jun 4 #7

I turned some investments into a newer and larger house CanonRay Jun 4 #13

I'll just keep my NVIDIA,TYVM. ColoringFool Jun 4 #18

Jensen Huang is pulling sooo many circular-financing fast ones... paulkienitz Jun 4 #19

woops, NVidia has taken a downturn... could this be the turning point? paulkienitz Jun 7 #58

In early Nov., NVIDIA was at $207. Late March it was $165. Mid May, $236. Now its $205 onenote Thursday #62

There's huge demand for those AI GPUs... mostly paid for with bad debt paulkienitz Friday #64

Heard the same shit from Thom Hartmann a few years back Ziggy Beans Jun 4 #26

That same lie was told before the last two crashes. paulkienitz Jun 4 #29

imho Fat gains should be pruned. Rotation is underway. bucolic_frolic Jun 4 #27

Simple.... multigraincracker Jun 4 #30

More apropos to the current situation, index funds do the opposite. paulkienitz Jun 5 #38

I think that's a terrible prediction Polybius Jun 5 #35

"doesnt crash anymore" paulkienitz Jun 5 #39

Lol imagine taking investment advive from a panicked, anonymous internet poster. BannonsLiver Jun 5 #41

I am hardly alone in pointing out how remarkably huge and smelly an elephant is currently in the room. paulkienitz Jun 5 #47

Or not Happy Hoosier Jun 5 #42

I have no intention of trying to call tops and bottoms. I just want to avoid big crashes. paulkienitz Jun 5 #46

If you depend upon the money... Happy Hoosier Jun 6 #55

His mistake was not when he got out edhopper Jun 6 #50

But hindsight is 20/20. Happy Hoosier Jun 6 #56

At that point, after a massive crash edhopper Jun 6 #57

No one should ever take investment advice from random posters on the internet onenote Jun 7 #60

When we see a big obvious catastrophe coming, it falls on all of us to join in the warning. paulkienitz Monday #61