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Last edited Fri Sep 6, 2024, 01:12 PM - Edit history (2)

Bonds Waver as ‘Jury Is Still Out’ on Big Fed Cut: Markets Wrap, Bloomberg (no paywall on this one), 9/6/24 in wake of the jobs report -- the consensus is that it's likely to be a 0.25% cut.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-stocks-face-pressure-ahead-223257619.html


CME Fedwatch is showing 57% probability of NO CUT and 43% probability of a 0.25% cut, and NO probability of a 0.50% cut
EDIT: Johnny2X2X is right. The current target rate is 525-550, according to the top of the graph
At the moment, 108p CT, it is 73% for a 0.25% cut and 27% for a 0.50% cut.
That makes a lot more sense. (Before I thought the current rate was 500-525, that's what I get for relying on memory. I didn't see the current rate thing at the top of the graph)
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html


The yield on the 10 year Treasury is essentially the same right now as it was at yesterday's close, so that indicates the jobs report was no biggie difference as far as what the Fed might do.

And: There's still the CPI and PPI and retail sales reports coming before the Sept 18 FOMC decision.