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BumRushDaShow

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15. As a comment to this

Sat Sep 7, 2024, 06:01 AM

Sep 7

(I get tired of pointing out that the FOMC committee makes the rate decision in a vote, it's not the nefarious Jerome who alone decides; but I realize the smartest people in the room types will point out that they're all part of the Trump-loving tax-cut-wishing oligarchy, sigh. Sometimes I just need to take time off)

I think people forget that decision is done by a Committee, including a "Board" with several Biden appointees on it. I sort of liken it to how some think that John Roberts can swoop in and unilaterally override any SCOTUS decision.

I put little weight on the argument that they won't do 0.50% because it might scare the markets and scare consumers and business leaders too.

Actually I wasn't thinking of the amount as something that would "scare the markets" but more along the lines of the opposite, where it could unintentionally juice them, as there are some (speculators) in the markets who seem to want to use these sorts of interest rate cut announcements as a Red Bull-type stimulant. I say this because of watching what happened in the past whenever there were "rumors" floated about "cuts" (like this past late winter/early spring), leading to the markets shooting up.

It's a tricky thing to be able to try to reduce the volatility that often occurs whenever there are simple policy discussions.

I am always amazed, always, at how much good people around these parts seem to think a 0.25% cut will do. Really, they think 0.25% is going to propel a pre-election nirvana of renewed economic and job growth? As opposed to what I think -- it will propel the stock market up for a couple of days.

I actually think it will generate the same type of reaction when the hikes finally stopped (despite the predictions that "'Powell' (in quotes) would keep raising the rates more and more and more and we would end up back in the late '70s in a Volker redux).

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August payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 142,000, but unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% [View all] BumRushDaShow Sep 6 OP

Not great, but OK IronLionZion Sep 6 #1

With the big 86k downward revisions of prior 2 months, we only have 56,000 more jobs than in last month's report progree Sep 6 #3

Agreed IronLionZion Sep 6 #5

So you think they are going to go "aggressive" BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #6

I might have gotten "ahead of myself", maybe have egg all over my face already progree Sep 6 #7

You're reading that CME site wrong Johnny2X2X Sep 6 #8

Your're right. I corrected my previous. Thanks much /nt progree Sep 6 #12

I actually have a sub to Bloomberg BumRushDaShow Sep 6 #10

Recent auction results at Treasury Direct, FWIW: mahatmakanejeeves Sep 6 #11

On scaring people with a 0.50% rate cut progree Sep 6 #13

As a comment to this BumRushDaShow Sep 7 #15

LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs. And yes these are NET job gains progree Sep 6 #2

Well, my 401K will add to the pain today because PAAANIC! Happy Hoosier Sep 6 #4

This is actually good news for the economy as a whole. Yavin4 Sep 6 #9

Here's some positives - A 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, and a longer workweek progree Sep 7 #14