The models are starting to let this thing travers the southern GOM longer then "swinging it" to the NE as it begins to approach the West coast. Problem there is as I've alluded to in a previous post this decreases the angle of approach to FL which by geography is bad, very bad. Its going to give more time to drive water similar to Helene into the West coast instead of them not having an onshore flow for much less time with a perpendicular hit. Plus, somewhat similar to Helene, it's going to be interacting with a frontal zone (although at a different angle) that will probably drastically increase the size of the storm at least doubling it. How soon this happens and how far East it can get before it turns are gonna be a BIG DEAL! Depending on the angle of approach a one mile change at sea could mean a 20 mile difference in landfall points. These are the ones that really suck in FL (not like any are good). Anything on the West coast is exponentially worse than storms that hit the East coast because the flooding risk is 10X's greater due to the shallow nature of the GOM coastline. Plus FL crossers really suck because there's nowhere to run unless you head start driving to Alabama tonight.
I may be heading down to Flagler Beach tomorrow to help my mother if need be. My brother can't as he's in the bullseye right now, 30 feet above sea level in Northern Pinellas County, so a wind event for him and he is in a modern 150mph proof home with a re-enforced interior room (I helped him build it 30 years ago, he's safe)
and my father will be sheltering there. Too far for my mother to travel right now, plus she's in a modern stilt home 10ft above the ground which is 15ft above sea level with her best friend of 60 years. Really not looking forward to staying there with those 2 crazy old ladies (they are full blown nuts, trust me lol). Sux but its FL today and we gotta deal with it.
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