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You absolutely can have a very tight race and see that you're not performing as well as you need to in specific turnout models, giving you concern that you'll have *enough* support to win a close race.

One great example is 2016. Trump didn't win by much but the Clinton campaign realized they were not hitting the metrics they needed to in places like Philadelphia and that it was putting them in the danger zone. Sure enough...

If anything, this points to the idea that it's extremely close. If their internal polling has them only up one or two points in, say Pennsylvania under a specific turnout model, but other data polling indicates they're not hitting the metrics they need to to reflect that turnout model, it absolutely could cause concern in such a close race.

I'll say this: neither campaign thinks either will win "bigly". Both believe this will be a MOE race where turnout is vital to narrow wins.

Whoever wins PA isn't likely to win it by more than two points - and that pretty much goes for Wisconsin and even Michigan too.