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There may be some early signs that Patronis has a close race on his hands. Early turnout data from the four counties that comprise District 1 show Republicans with only a 4.9-point advantage with mail-in ballots.

As of Thursday, the supervisors of elections offices in the four counties of Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton reported approximately 19,213 ballots returned. Of those ballots, 45.91% were from registered Republicans, 41.02% were from registered Democrats, 11.54% were from non-party affiliated voters, and 1.53% were from other minor parties.

There’s no doubt that Northwest Florida is a solid red Republican district where Republicans enjoy a nearly 3-to-1 voter registration advantage over Democrats.

In the 2024 election, Valimont lost to Gaetz by 32 percentage points. That election came in the wake of the scandal Gaetz faced for allegations of sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, and Gaetz still won 66% of the vote.

What remains to be seen is how Trump’s policies are playing in Northwest Florida. The district has the highest number of federal workers in Florida thanks to the area’s large military presence. The district has nearly 20,000 federal workers, which is about 5.6% of the district’s entire workforce, according to data from the Congressional Research Service.