Pennsylvania

Last edited Mon Sep 9, 2024, 09:20 PM - Edit history (1)

The Towns & Townships on the West Shore of the Susquehanna River (Camp Hill, Mechanicsburg, New Cumberland, Lower Allen, Hampden, etc.) used to be lily white and overwhelmingly Republican. While that area is still majority Republican, it is slowly becoming more Democratic. And in Dauphin County (which has always trended Republican in the areas outside Harrisburg City), last year they elected 2 Democrats for County Commissioners for the first time in forever.

Cumberland County went from 57% Trump/39% Clinton in 2016 to 55% Trump/44% Biden in 2020 to 53% Shapiro/44% Mastroiano in the 2022 Governor election. I drive through Camp Hill quite often and back in 2016, I saw Trump signs all over the place. This year, I'm seeing none. If Harris can gain even 3 or 4 points in Cumberland County above what Biden did in 2020, it will go a long way toward winning the state.

As for Perry Vs Stelson, I think this is the best chance we've had yet to take out Perry. I was disappointed Stelson wasn't on the air with commercials until recently and then her first commercials were rather bland. Hopefully she (or some Democratic PAC) will air some hard hitting anti-Perry aids between now and the election. I think Stelson will actually win in both Dauphin and Cumberland counties, it's the York County part of the District that concerns me and might be enough for Perry to hold on. But, I'm trying to remain cautiously optimistic about that race.