Establishment Survey, as compared to the Employed number in the Household Survey for months.
Everyone in pundit-land says the payroll job numbers is the more comprehensive survey, and indeed the BLS, which produces both numbers, says as much, comparing sampling error in the 2 surveys. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
Here's my latest yammer from the August 2 jobs report --
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3283653
The headline payroll job numbers (114,000 in July) come from the Establishment Survey
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (
in thousands):
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 251 862 494 272 286 420 690 243 255 361 258 136
2023: 482 287 146 278 303 240 184 210 246 165 182 290
2024: 256 236 310 108 216 179 114 (Sum is 1419 year to date, that's 1.419 million)
The last 2 months (June and July) are preliminary, subject to revisions
#
Employed in thousands (67,000 in July) come from the separate Household Survey,
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands):
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
If one adjusts the date range from 2021 to 2024, the graph is much more meaningful because it leaves out the huge swings of 2020 that greatly enlarges the Y axis and makes what follows look like tiny almost undiscernible squiggles around the zero axis
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 942 462 691 --331 426 --198 166 476 136 --165 --244 815
2023: 852 149 523 138 --255 297 205 291 50 --270 586 --683
2024: --31 --184 498 25 --408 116 67 (Sum is 83 year to date. That's 83,000 more employed.
Compare to the above series: 1.419 million more jobs)
January and February of each year are affected by changes in population controls.
A very volatile data series from month to month. I used a double minus to make the negative ones stand out a little better
This Household Survey also produces the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate among many other stats
I don't have the series numbers for US-born and foreign-born. I should be able to find them,
Data finder tool:
https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment
but weekends I work on getting the piles off the floor that accumulated while I was sick, praying and hoping that maybe somebody else can actually do some research into this kind of thing.
The article claims the CPS survey shows 1,010k additional jobs:
We estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) show a decline of 190,000. In addition, we estimate that the increase in employment among foreign-born people was 1.7 million, larger than the 1.2 million in the published data
(So the claim is the published data shows -190k + 1200k = 1010k additional jobs in this period --Progree)
...
We find that the published data in the CPS significantly underestimate population growth from January 2023 to January 2024 and, thus, employment growth over the year for both groups. It is perhaps counterintuitive that measurement issues stemming from an unexpected surge in net migration would result in the underestimation of the growth in the U.S.-born population, but this is indeed the case.
Well, looking at the monthly changes January 2023 + Feb 2023 + ... + Dec 2023, I get 1,883k change over the 12 months.
EMPLOYED from Household Survey which I assume is same as the CPS survey they talk about:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
The sum of Feb 2023 + Mar 2023 + ... + Jan 2024 is 1,000k change over the 12 months, which is close to the 1,010k they claim the published data shows "from January 2023 to January 2024"
There might have been a revision since they wrote that, or they may have rounded 1,190k to "1.2 million".
Anyhow, no big deal, but I've really got to deal with losing phone service and a few other issues, and the floor piles (they are related).