Environment & Energy

The forecast puts Biden’s goal of driving US hydrogen costs down to $1 per kilogram by 2031 out of reach. Many analysts consider that price essential to convincing potential customers to start using the fuel. BNEF took an in-depth look at how green hydrogen will fare in New York, Texas and Utah. The report found that Texas will create the cheapest green hydrogen but costs will only fall from $7.22 per kilogram today to $4.82 in 2030. If Biden’s planned tax credit of $3 per kilogram is included, Texas hydrogen costs could fall below $1 by 2040, according to the forecast.

The fate of US hydrogen policies remains uncertain, with President-elect Donald Trump set to take office in January. Although industry executives remain hopeful he will continue many of Biden’s initiatives — in part because oil companies are interested in hydrogen — Trump has said little about it. His threatened tariffs on imported products could boost the price of foreign-made electrolyzers, but BNEF’s price forecast did not take tariffs or subsidies into account.