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Democratic Primaries

George II

(67,782 posts) Fri Mar 20, 2020, 06:16 PM Mar 2020

538 has revised their probability for winning 1991 delegates before the convention.... [View all]

While Biden has dropped 2% from 99 in 100 (99%) to 49 in 50 (98%), he didn't lose that to his only rival, Sanders, he lost it to "No one", who is now up to 1 in 50 (2%). Sanders remains at the bottom, tied with the Dropouts at <1 in 100 (0%)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

19 replies

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Highlight:

538 has revised their probability for winning 1991 delegates before the convention.... [View all] George II Mar 2020 OP

RCP averages appear to have dropped 10% in the last 9 days jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #1

While 538's chance of Biden may have dropped minusculy, their estimate of the delegates.... George II Mar 2020 #4

a heavy factor involves the possibility of bernie dropping out. jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #12

No it doesn't...even my son in Indiana a huge Sanders supporter is angered by Sander's Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #18

Not sure what you're seeing. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #7

I'm just seeing the last three polls released put biden ahead 15 points jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #11

Nope, Ipsos is an outlier. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #15

thanks! jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #16

There is no way Biden is ahead by only 15 points...and even if it were true Sanders needs to win by Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #19

This message was self-deleted by its author jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #14

Thanks.. I don't understand the No One.. ? Cha Mar 2020 #2

Arya Stark. n/t Yavin4 Mar 2020 #6

From what I recall, the model figures there's a very small possibility Biden could withdraw. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #9

Ah right.. Thank you, TwilightZone! Cha Mar 2020 #10

it means no one hits 1991 Celerity Mar 2020 #13

Switch to show a Plurality of Pledged Delegates. djacq Mar 2020 #3

Ah, that's a subtle change from previously. Good observation, thanks! George II Mar 2020 #5

Thank you, duacq.. Cha Mar 2020 #8

Well, at least Bernie's doing better than dropouts ... nolawarlock Mar 2020 #17