Democratic Primaries

And it is worth noting how odds and probabilities work when dealing with measures such as the 538 people deal in. That something presents odds of, say, five out of six, does not by any means ensure a single trial will not prove to be one where the one in six chance will come home. It means that if you could run the trial a large number of times, say sixty thousands, that one outcome would occur about fifty thousand times and one about ten thousand times. Elections being one time events, however good a calculation of odds might be, and however one sided the odds are, an anomalous result may still occur on a single trial.

The odds given by the 538 people on Sanders securing a majority of delegates out of the remaining primaries are such that he could not win on a single throw of honest twenty-sided dice 'percentile' dice. Since a great many separate events are involved (the succession of individual state primaries), the calculation of these odds reflects cumulative probabilities, rather than a single trial. Sanders does not have to win a single coin toss, he has to win something on the order of two dozen coin tosses in succession. Any sum you care to place on that possibility I would be happy to cover at any odds you might name. I would consider putting up a hundred to secure a hundred and one an investment rather than a wager.





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."